adam

Stroud is basically $7.5M, so $8M makes sense: https://boardroom.tv/nfl-draft-pick-salaries-by-round-2023/ I don't think next year is the issue with Fields' contract, it becomes the 5th Year option year and or any future years that would overlap a new rookie's deal (2025-2028). In those years, you have to take out 2-3 vets making $10M a year. Right now that is actually easy (Whitehair, Jackson), and maybe in a year or two (Edmunds, Davis). So there is a path to keeping the team mostly intact, but Fields has to play at a level that can overcome the losses of the players his salary would replace.

and Stroud has a 62.7 so far this year, better than both Tua and Fields. Tua gets a big penalty for his running. He is only averaging 1.5 yards per carry. They clearly are not allowing him to run (concussion risks).

If we win out and make the playoffs, Getsy may get some HC interviews because that would be an epic turnaround.

At this point, 7 wins has to be seen as a success because that would mean you went 7-6 for the final 13 games after starting 0-4. 7 wins would obviously be 4 more than last year, so more than doubling your win total is tough in this league.

If they kept Flus and Fields, and fired Getsy, that would be 3 OC's in 4 years for Justin. That is tough for any QB, let alone one trying to clean up some fatal flaws. On Stroud, depending on how you look at it, that was his worst game, but he did have a rushing TD that game. He has had 8 multi-TD games but in the 3 games where he had 0-1 TDs, he didn't throw an INT. His lowest QB Rating has been 78.0 with 5 games above 100. Justin has a 78.2, 61.1, 58,7, and 36.7. So it seems like Fields' floor is a lot lower than we thought and he has too many bad games with multiple turnovers.

Yes, there is still a chance. It is basically win out or nothing. The Bears have to leapfrog 5 of these 6 teams: SEA, MIN, GB, LAR, NO, TB. Based on projections, all of them could finish 8-9. So if the Bears finished 8-9, they would have to win a bunch of tiebreakers with 5 of those teams which is extremely unlikely. So chances of making the playoffs going 4-1 and finishing 8-9 are probably around 10% (if that one loss is to CLE). Now if the win out and finish 9-8, there is probably a 75% chance they make the playoffs. ATL is currently a division leader and plays TB, CHI, and NO from the in the hunt teams. If Bears win out, they are beating ATL which would give them the H2H tiebreaker. It is better for the Bears to have NO win the division. Proj: 8-9/6-6 (Week 18 @ NO is basically a Division Championship Game, winner is the #4 seed, loser goes home) SEA is currently the #6 seed and has to play DAL, SF, and PHI in the next 3 weeks, so they may be 6-8 in a few weeks. They have the toughest road. Owns Common Tiebreaker against the Bears. Proj: 8-9/6-6 MIN is currently the #7 seed and on a bye. They play GB from the in the hunt teams and get DET twice in 3 weeks. Losing to DET twice or losing to DET once and also losing to LVR would give Bears the common tiebreaker. Proj: 8-9/7-5 Good Conf record GB is currently the #8 seed and play KC this weekend. They play TB, MIN, and CHI from the in the hunt teams. The Bears would have the common tiebreaker with GB. Proj: 8-9/7-5 Good Conf record (GB @ MIN in Week 17 followed by CHI @ GB Week 18 will decide the playoff fate for a lot of teams) LAR is currently the #9 seed and only play NO from the in the hunt teams. They also play CLE, BAL, and SF. 2nd toughest schedule. The Bears would have the Common Tiebreaker % over the Rams. Proj: 8-9/6-6 NO is currently the #10 seed but also fighting ATL for the division title. They finish with LAR, TB, and ATL, and their next game is DET. Owns H2H tiebreaker with Bears. Proj: 8-9/5-7 (bad Conf record forces them to win Division) TB is currently the #11 seed and play ATL, GB, and NO from the in the hunt teams. They also play CAR twice. They have the easiest schedule. Owns H2H tiebreaker with Bears. Proj: 8-9/7-5 Good Conf record CHI is currently the #12 seed and plays ATL and GB from the in the hunt teams. Regardless of anything else, they have to win out to get into the playoffs at 9-8. Based on the other teams schedules, it is highly unlikely that 2 of the WC seeded teams get to 9 wins, and even if they did, there is a good chance Chicago could win at least one tie breaker (H2H, Conf, Common) - Proj: 9-8/7-5 Good Conf record or 8-9/7-5 Good Conf record (CLE loss) or 8-9/6-6 (CLE win). BLUF: If the Bears go 4-1 and lose to an NFC Team, they are out. If the Bears win out they have a great chance at making the playoffs. If they go 4-1 and lose to CLE, they still have some tiebreaker chances.

Justin needs to have 11-12 solid games out of 17, with a few great games sprinkled in. The problem is, the volume of solid games is too low. He has 3-4 a season, some mid games, but some real stinkers too. Also, if he was throwing for 300+ yards a game with 3 TDs, then the 1 or 2 turnovers doesn't feel as bad because he is making it up with TDs. So he can't have game like the MIN game where he has 0 TDs and 2 turnovers. With any QB, the minimum standard is more TDs than turnovers. The great ones have an incredible ratio, the good ones are at least 2 to 1. Fields is at 1.24. Trubisky had a 1.45 with the Bears.

That double doink changed the career trajectories of so many people and the franchise as a whole. Pace, Nagy, Trubisky, etc.

Riley Leonard?

NYJ does not have a 2nd round pick. If there were looking to move up to #1, I don't know if they are a fit for the Bears as I assumed that Poles would like to get his 2nd round pick back. ARZ has their pick and HOU's pick in the 1st. It would be nice for them to move up to #1 and give up both 1st's in lieu of giving up a 2025 1st. So the Bears could conceivably trade back from 1 to get #3, #6 (own pick), and #17 while adding an early 2nd rounder back into the mix. 4 picks in the top 35. ARZ has a haul picks to use or trade: (2x 1st, 2x 3rd, 2x 4th, 2x 5th) I would hate to trade with NE as they always seem to screw teams over. Other potential trade partners would be TB, NYJ, LVR, NO, and LAR.

Outside of some red flags with Williams character, I am worried about his size, 6'1" is on the small side for QBs nowadays. Maye is at least 6'4", but neither have really impressed of late. If anyone, Penix and Daniels have been really impressive.

I was honing in on Fields stats with players plus or minus a little bit on both ends for those stats to find the closest group to him. That was sort of the point. He is in a pretty rare group of accomplished QBs, so there is something there. This is not Mitch Trubisky again, even though Mitch technically had better passing numbers.

Yep, I think reading the field and the passing over the middle stuff can be corrected or improved upon over time, but he can't turn the ball over at the rate he has been. Like you said, nothing else is going to matter. Jameis Winston threw for over 300 yards a lot but with 3 picks and a fumble in a ton of games. None of the stats mattered but the turnovers.

Lol, I jump back and forth between my own beliefs, desires, and what I think the team is thinking. I want Fields to be H1M. That would be the best outcome for the franchise as it would provide unprecedented flexibility in the draft and would allow the team to take another leap forward against the competition (gained Moore + Wright + Johnson + 2024 1st + 2025 2nd) which could lead to an additional 2025 1st (if they trade a 1st) or drafting 2x blue chippers in the top 10. If Fields is deemed not the guy, then one of those picks is a QB, meaning there is still a hole to be filled and the team doesn't nearly take the leap forward against the grain as they would with using two picks or being able to trade one to gain more capital. I think they gave him a pass for the DET game as it was his first game back and he outperformed expectations. Then against MIN, they knew the blitzes would cause issues, so they modified the game plan. Now with this next game, there should be no restrictions and it will be his cleanest evaluation since the Denver, Washington games.

There are only 5 games left. He is 1-1 after 2 games, but ultimately it comes down to passing production. Only the team knows whether the game plan is because Getsy is terrible, or because they don't trust Fields, or both. He is 43-60, 71.1%, 386 yds, 6.4 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 Fumbles, 30-163 rushing in two games since returning. So his averages are 21.5-30, 193 yds, 6.4 Y/A, 0.5 TD, 0 INT, 1.5 FL, 15-81.5 rushing. Rushing+Passing: 274.5. So after 2 of the 7, his TD production is low, INTs look great, Y/A down, rushing looks great. Fumbles bad. His pass attempts are up 3 from his season average, and about 5 from his career averages. Comp% is way up but mainly due to Y/A being so low. It looks like he reverted back to the start of the season as the last two games are very similar to his first two of the season besides the INTs. He has never gone 3 straight games without an INT. He has two right now, but he turns the ball over too much. If it is not an INT, it is a fumble. Out of everything else, that may be the deciding factor.

No, if you are taking that part of the field away by yourself, then the defense can put assets in other places, which then it makes it doubly hard on you to succeed. I think this next game against DET will be the most telling game of Fields' career. He will be over 9 weeks since his injury, with 2 games under his belt to knock of the rust. The entire team will be coming off a bye, and will more than likely be the healthiest they have been all year. It is going to be his first home game since returning from injury, and he just put up 16-23, 169 yds, 69.6%, 7.3 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT with 104 rushing yards against DET in a hostile environment. So more weeks removed from injury, check, at home, check, coming off a bye, check, 2nd game against opponent, check. If he can't improve, look better, and win with all that going for him, you have your answer about his future and what the Bears will do going forward. If he plays bad, or only average and they lose again, the remaining games will not be able to overcome the last 3.

Now with a few more games under his belt, here is where Fields is compared to his contemporaries. For a QB, in his 3rd year with 30-40 starts, over 30 passing TDs, under 40 INTs, 5K passing yards, an 80 QB Rating or higher, and at least 1000 rushing yards. That criteria has only 6 QBs in it in the Super Bowl era. Jackson, Watson, Hurts, Griffin, Jones, and Fields. Fields is last in attempts, completions, yards, Comp%, TD, QB Rating, and Pick6's. He is 2nd to last in sacks and Y/A and 4th in INT. He is 2nd in rushing yards and 4th in rushing TDs. In terms of QB Rating, he is closest to Jones. Here is how they stack up against each other as passers: Jones 796-1268, 62.8%, 8398 yds, 45 TD, 29 INT, 84.3 QB Rating (12-25 as a starter) Fields 494-810, 61.0%, 5699 yds, 36 TD, 27 INT, 83.1 QB Rating (7-26 as a starter) My belief is that unless Fields wins out while literally playing near an MVP level that they will move on from him after this season.

Purdy is a system QB. SF is the only team that would make him look this good. I am sure there a few others where he would be decent, but not on the Bears. There are some other things with Purdy that are concerning, he is only 6'1" and rarely do QBs that small excel for an extended period of time and they get injured more often on average. He has been lucky to date, but eventually he will be part of that statistic as well. People may forget but even the 49ers started Jimmy G and Trey Lance over Purdy until the last 5 games of the season in 2022. He also got hurt, which ended their playoff run. Besides the O-Line, I am sure it is nice having McCaffrey, Deebo, Aiyuk, and Kittle as your top 4 receiving threats. Is there a better top 4 in the NFL? McCaffrey is such a dual threat, he gets a ton of targets. More than all Bears RBs combined. In comparison to those 4, that would be Herbert, Moore, Mooney, Kmet on the Bears lol. Moore is the only comparable receiver to SF's group, Kmet is decent but not on Kittle's level as a pass catcher. Mooney would be WR4 on SF. Herbert is nowhere near the pass catcher McCaffrey is.

So I was looking at Next Gen Stats and noticed something about Fields that has been discussed. He rarely targets over the middle between 10-20 yds. This season, he is 4-8 for 67 yds and 3 INTs over the middle between 10-20 yds. To put that into perspective, that is a 37.5% INT rate. His INT rate everywhere else on the field is 1.4%. That is insane. The best INT rate all-time for a career is Rodgers at 1.4%. Fields career INT rate is 3.3% and it's 2.7% this year, but again 1.4% is elite, while 37.5% is outrageously high. Also, that is not all throws over the middle, just between 10-20 yards. So it seems like Getsy has taken that out of the playbook as Fields only has one pass attempted in that area of the field in the last two games.

OK a little off topic, how is PIT 7-4 when they are -23 in pt differential while LAC is 4-7 with a +11? PIT is also negative in yard differential at -44 yds. So PIT allows more yard and points than their opponents but are 7-4 in those games. The Bears are +23 in yard differential. For DVOA, there are 5 teams with a top 10 offense and top 10 defense: 1. BAL 4/2 2. SF 1/6 3. KC 5/8 4. DET 6/10 5. DAL 10/3 BUF is 6-6 but is 5th in DVOA. LAC is 4-7 and 13th. DEN is 6-5 and 22nd. Turnover Leaders (FL/INT): 1. Dobbs 5/10 = 15 2. Howell 1/13 = 14 3. Jones 1/12 = 13 4. Allen 0/12 = 12 4. Yound 4/8 = 12 4. Ridder 4/8 = 12 7. Hurts 1/10 = 11 7. Minshew 4/7 = 11 7. Lawrence 4/7 = 11 7. Mahomes 2/9 = 11 Fields is at 3/6 = 9 Fields has the longest Time to Throw in the NFL at 3.13. Tua is the fastest at 2.36.

I like the top one for his last 5 games. Arguably the best 5 of his career. On the 2nd half, all true, but cherrypicking for sure. I like QBR (44.5 - 23rd) over QB Rating, both are useful, but QBR is more accurate. Rushing yards are great, but should be more icing on the cake than the main meal. Using a stat and picking out one QB is kinda funny, he is 21st in the league for Comp%, behind the likes of Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell and Baker Mayfield. Also, his Comp% is 0.7% higher than Stroud's but Stroud's Y/A is 8.4 compared to 7.1. So it is expected for a QB to have a lower Comp% with a higher Y/A.

Here is Fields' chart. Air Yards per attempt was 2.7, a career low. 17 passes at or behind the LOS. Only 5 pass attempts beyond 10 yards, and only 2 beyond 15. He only had 5 incompletions inbounds, and one was into the chest of the defender. This is nothing to write home about. One less fumble and a passing or rushing TD would've made this performance acceptable.

What is crazy is his YAC. He is 2nd in the NFL with 440 YAC, with Tyreek Hill at #1 with 550.

DJ probably won't get the Bears single season records for receptions or yards, but he is right there for 2nd in both categories. Marshall has 118-1508 as the franchise single season leader. #2 in receptions is Allen Robinson with 102, and Alshon with 1421 yards. Moore is on pace for 99-1420, however, that is based on averages and he got the ball less with Bagent. So if he trends slightly higher, he could finish with over 100 catches and 1470 yards.

Last 4 full games: Hurts 78-114, 68.4%, 876 yds, 7.7 Y/A, 9 TD, 2 INT (4-0 record), Rushing: 40-136, 3.4 Y/C, 5 TD, 12 sacks, 1 FL Fields 86-124, 69.4%, 1003 yds, 8.1 Y/A, 9 TD, 1 INT (2-2 record, 2 defensive meltdowns), Rushing: 45-245, 5.4 Y/C, 0 TD, 12 sacks, 3 FL Usage-wise, this is pretty crazy how close they are thru 4 full games. Fields with 10 more passing attempts and 4 more rushes, more yards, better Y/A and Y/C, less INTs. The biggest outliers are rushing TDs (Hurts 5) and fumbles lost (Fields 3). Hurts benefits greatly from the team around him and the tush push, but outside of that, if you didn't know better, most would say Fields is the better player when comparing these stats.