adam

BTW, besides terrible coaching by Nagy, Trubisky also had a subpar receiving unit that was bottom 10 every year except for 2018 when they were 17th. Check out CHI vs KC receivers from 2017 - 2022, then consider how Mahomes looked on Thursday night. Trubisky was the fall guy and he had his flaws, but he could've been a better, more mobile Mac Jones if he had receivers. 2017 - 23rd / 10th KC 2018 - 17th / 3rd KC 2019 - 28th / 7th KC 2020 - 20th / 4th KC 2021 - 26th / 11th KC 2022 - 32nd / 2nd KC Fields had the WORST receivers in 2022 (and one of the 5 worst units in the last 5 years), yet somehow pulled some of those games out of his ass. Now with at least a league average receiving corps, if nothing else improved, that is several wins added. The defense has 6 new starters and 5 new key rotational players. That is 11 out of 16 main cogs on the defense with several others back from injury. They don't have to be great, just league average, and the Bears take a massive leap in wins in 2023.

On a side note, I got involved in a Twitter thread and uncovered some interesting info. So after Thursday Night there was all this discussion about how Mahomes looked without Kelce. Then PFF grades came out and people used that to support their argument that Mahomes had no help. Yet Fields has never gotten that benefit because the team hasn't won. However, the situation with Fields is much worse than I even expected. The Bears were dead last in Receiver grades in 2022, and for his career, Fields receivers grade out at 62.4, well under the league average. He has only started 5 games out of 25 where his receivers were league average or above. So in only 20% of his starts were his receivers at least average, and in 2022, he only had 2 starts (NE and DET) where receivers were average. Now you add DJ Moore, a healthy Mooney, a Claypool that knows the playbook, Tonyan, and Scott, and that grade should go way up. That alone is going to make Fields better, there is a clear correlation between those values. People say that the QB has to make the players around him better, but as shown by Toney, the players have to help out the QB by just being average. If the Bears get average receiver play, they are a 10 win team, that's what the numbers say. Fields will improve exponentially without actually improving. If he actually improved himself at the same time, the league is in for a big surprise.

Looks like he got hurt during practice. They released Cole, and elevated Carlson and Gates. Presumably to replace Tonyan and Cole for Week 1. Greg Gabriel expects them to bring Cole back after the game.

Looks like they released Dylan Cole due to injury, and with Tonyan hurt, elevated Carlson and Gates.

They drafted Skyy Moore last year and Rashee Rice this year, signed Valdes-Scantling and traded for Toney, but that is their WR room as they traded Hill and let Juju and Hardman walk. Last year it really was Kelce and Juju. Valdes-Scantling was their 2nd best WR with 42 receptions for 687 yards. That is more like a #3, but Kelce takes 25% of the receptions and targets. I just don't understand why teams don't bracket Kelce, the odds of any of the other players to succeed one on one consistently is very low. Pacheco is their lead back and he is more of scatback than a true 3-down RB. However, this is what your team looks like once your QB's massive contract hits. Wait until Burrow's finally kicks in, guys like Higgins and Mixon will be gone. They will have Burrow and Chase, and a whole bunch of rookie contracts and minimum cap hit free agents.

Did they? Wow, I didn't see that.

Bears with no Jenkins, Packers with no Watson. Seems like the playing field got evened out a little bit. Beyond Aaron Jones, Watson was the #2 threat in their offense. Now the Bears have to worry about stopping Jones/Dillon on the ground and in the short passing game, and Doubs/Musgrave in the passing game. If the Bears can't beat that team, at home, then it's going to be another long season. In reality, the Bears should beat them handily (double digits).

No Watson:

I don't like to use PFF grades, but I will when they support what I am seeing. Billings and Walker are low key sleeper acquisitions. Billings with the 16th ranked IDL last year and Walker was 24th. Every team has 2x Edge starters, so the top 64 are normally starting caliber. Walker is in the top 3rd of that group. Depending on formation you can have 1-2 IDLs starting, so at least 48, if not more are starting IDL, Billings was also a top 3rd player. Then you add Dexter and Pickens rotating in with fresh legs, and you have a very solid DL room. Compare that to the dudes that they replaced, well into the 100s (near bottom of league), so the defense is going to be improved. They also went from one of the worst LB corps in the league (after Roquan trade), to arguably the best (Edmunds - 5th, Edwards - 6th, Sanborn - 41st). The defense is going to be better. Then they have Gordon replace Vildor in the slot, which will be a massive upgrade because Vildor was targeted early and often. Lastly, they were already one of the better Safety duos, but now in their second year together, they should improve. So where are the holes on this defense? Justin Jones is arguably the worst starter, and he is at least serviceable with Dexter/Pickens behind him.

After watching what many have projected to be 2 playoff teams and KC potentially winning another Super Bowl, my confidence in the Bears surprising people just went up. Comparing the offenses to the Bears, Moore is arguably the best skill position player amongst the Bears, Chiefs, and Lions. Herbert is the best RB (just based on his numbers from last year), and if Mahomes can run like that against the DET defense, Fields is gonna cook. Kmet would be TE1 on the Lions and TE2 on KC. Even Foreman would be RB1 on KC and a better RB2 than Monty. Mooney and Claypool make for a great WR2/3 combo. KC doesn't even have any good WRs. Outside of Brown, DET has a lot of castoffs that never amount to anything other than 1-2 good games per year. On defense, the only player that stood out was Hutchinson, and even though he looked like a super productive player, he had no official stats, not a single tackle, pass defended, sack, or INT. That is pretty remarkable for someone that is getting so much hype. In some ways, his pursuit will get him in a lot of trouble against a QB like Fields. If he can't keep contain against Mahomes, he won't keep it against Fields. Bears are going to shred the Packers. 5-6 30yd plays. 30 something to something in the teens.

BTW, Montgomery had a -9 RYOE, so he had 9 yards less than expected for his 21 carries (-0.45 per carry). That is terrible. I hope they keep feeding him. He was the 6th worst back in the NFL last year for RYOE. Herbert was 4th best with the least amount of carries. For RYOE/ATT, Herbert was 1st in the NFL at +1.29 per carry, Foreman was 9th with +0.61, and Montgomery was -0.26. Monty was also -0.36 in 2021 after being +0.20 in 2020. His rookie year he was -0.22. So he has always been a below average RB.

I feel much better about the Bears after watching that game. Neither team looked good. Detroit scored 14 pts on offense against a defense missing their best player. The KC game looks winnable. We have a better running attack, and by all means, a better passing game, and a super dynamic QB compared to the statue in Goff. On defense, if that is the offense we need to defend against, I like our chances. For Detroit games, no one scares me. We have 3 good CBs, so St. Brown will get his catches, but I don't think they will be chunk plays. Gibbs may be the only one we need to be concerned about as he looked explosive. However, if you are just looking at top players, we match up pretty good against both of those teams. Fields, Moore, Herbert, Kmet, Ngakoue, Edmunds, Edwards, Johnson, Gordon, Brisker, Jackson would all be starters in Detroit.

KC didn't have their #2 and #3 best players and Detroit still needed a pick-6 (that went right thru Toney's hand), and a fake punt on their own 17 to win by 1 point. Montgomery averaged 3.5 yards per carry (just like old times) and for how it seemed like Hutchinson was all over the field, he didn't record an official stat (tackle, sack, PD, INT). While he was doing double spin moves, he was losing contain, and Mahomes was gashing them on the ground. Up until the last drive where the Lions ran out the clock, Mahomes was the leading rusher in the game. So if Mahomes can get 45 yards that easily on 6 carries, can you imagine what Fields can get? Needless to say, I was not impressed by either team, but at least KC had an excuse. However, it's funny that the media gives Mahomes a pass when he doesn't have Kelce, but Fields should produce throwing to Pettis, ESB, and ISM?

This might be my new found passion. So I see a link for a game preview for Bears - Packers here: https://www.playerprofiler.com/article/nfl-best-bets-week-1-2023/ They are obviously picking the Packers, on the Moneyline +100, which is fine. However, their reasoning is bassackwards. If they just said Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will run over the Bears so Love can play game manager while the defense forces turnovers and good field position for a close win, I would be totally ok with that. Very reasonable. This however, is just plain dumb: In the article, they state: 1. "this Packers offense will be good enough to take advantage of a Bears defense that was around middle-of-the-pack in pass rush win rate and run stop win rate last season." They clearly do not follow the team. The Bears will run out 9 players that didn't play in Week 13 last year against the Packers, and at least 7 players that either weren't on the team or barely played last season. This is not the same defense. Poles knows they had the worst rushing defense in the league, that is why they added Billings, Walker, Green, Edmunds, Edwards, and even guys like Stevenson are good against the run. With Gordon's shift inside to Slot CB, he provides a huge rushing defense upgrade over Vildor who was also a liability there too. Then this one on why the Bears offense will struggle against the Packers: 2. "Although the arm talent of Fields provides a great ceiling, we have yet to see evidence that he can maximize this improved pass-catching room." It is Week 1 Sherlock! Also, how is the Packers offense with Love starting for the first time throwing to rookie and 2nd year WRs have evidence that they can do anything in the passing game? At least Fields has shown something, Love has literally shown absolutely nothing to date. Then this one is where I stopped reading: 3. "Green Bay’s defensive core is also well-prepared for mobile quarterbacks like Fields." Fields was on pace to break the single season rushing record while not even playing in all the games before they shut him down. In Week 13 against the Packers, he threw for 254 yards and ran for 71 with a rushing TD. If not for ESB running a lazy route, the Bears win that game. If allowing 71 yards rushing is well-prepared, what does ill-prepared look like? The Bears had over 150 yards rushing and over 250 yards passing, and they held the Packers to under 200 passing and 100 rushing and still lost. If they do that again, the Bears win by 10+.

Death in the family? In the passing game, they will go after Stevenson or the LB/S in coverage. I doubt they target Johnson or Gordon much. They will motion Watson or Doubs away from those guys. 24 pts feels like the minimum. 4-5 sustained scoring drives. On defense, the Bears need some turnovers and sacks. The game will come down to the turnover ratio.

Interesting that Flus is the 3rd best bet to win COTY:

If Watson doesn't play and the Bears don't win, it is going to be a long season.

Lamar Jackson averages 174 yds per game for his career. The last two seasons, he had 16 TDs and 17 TDs. Last season Hurts threw 16 TDs. Allen threw 20 in his 2nd season. Fields threw 17 last season. He is right there with all these other mobile QBs.

That would be awesome.

Interestingly enough, Fields was 4th from last for "Time to Throw" in the NFL last year, exactly the same as Lamar was in 2019, 4th from last for TT. In 2018, the last 4 QBs were Josh Allen, Jackson, Wilson, and Watson. In 2020, Jalen Hurts was last, Allen 3rd from last, Jackson 4th, and Wilson 5th In 2021, Hurts was last again, Fields 7th, Jackson 5th, Allen 8th. Last year Watson was last, Fields was 4th, Jackson 5th, and Wilson 7th. So mobile QBs in general will hold the ball longer. I totally agree on taking sacks, throwing the ball away behind the LOS, and reducing fumbles and turnovers in general.

So when you look at Fields career stats, they look terrible, historically bad from a passing perspective for a QB that has played in as many games as he has in his first two years. However, he had a 10-game stretch last season (decent sample size) which I think is his floor going into this year. That stretch was Week 4 to Week 14 last year, 10 games in a row that he played in. He only had one game below 50 yards rushing (47) and one game below 150 yards passing (123). Here are his totals: 147-229, 1751 yds, 64.2%, 13 TD, 6 INT, 116-905, 7 TD If you take those numbers, compute the per game average, then apply it to a full 17-game season, he would end up with: Passing: 250-389, 64.2%, 2977 yds, 22 TD, 10 INT, Rushing: 197-1540 yds, 12 TD His passing yards would jump 700, his Comp% up 4%, TDs would be up 5, INTs would be down 1, and his rushing numbers would be redonkulous! 1540 rushing yards (400 more than he had), and 4 more rushing TDs. So in total, 9 more TDs! This is with the skeleton crew they were rolling out with him every week against good defenses. Here is the gauntlet he went thru: NYG 9-7-1, MIN 13-4, WAS 8-8-1, NE 8-9, DAL 12-5, MIA 9-8, DET 9-8, ATL 7-10, GB 8-9, PHI 14-3 The worst team were the Falcons at 7-10, every other team had 8 or wins. There were 12 teams other than the Bears to win 7 or fewer games last year. Fields only played 1 of them in this stretch. That is pretty remarkable. I really think people are underestimating Fields and the bar for passing is too low. I am thinking he will be in the 200s for passing yards every game, and probably over 50 yards rushing. That would put him over 3300 passing yards and 950 rushing depending on if he plays 16 or 17 games. There has only been one player in NFL history to hit 3K/1K, that was Lamar in his MVP season. The next closest were (over 3K/800): 2. Cunningham - 1990 - 3466 passing, 30 TD, 942 rushing, 5 TD (MVP-2, OPOY-2, PB) 3. Wilson - 2014 - 3475 passing, 20 TD, 849 rushing, 5 TD (PB) 4. Murray - 2020 - 3971 passing, 26 TD, 819 rushing, 11 TD (PB) 5. Griffin III - 2012 - 3200 passing, 815 rushing (his rookie year, OROY, PB) What I find interesting is that Kyler Murray had 37 TDs that in 2020 and didn't sniff an MVP vote with almost 4800 combined passing and rushing yards. That was a really impressive season. There have only been 33 times where a QB threw for more than 4800 yards, so Kyler's season is a top 50 of all time. In Lamar's MVP season, he had a combined 4333 yards and 43 total TDs. So Murray had almost 500 more yards and 6 fewer TDs. With an improved offense and defense, I really feel like Fields is set for an amazing season, and will probably be the first 3200/1000 player in NFL history.

1st TD, who you got? I feel like the highest probability is one of the RBs (Herbert or Foreman), or Fields. However, Kmet, Claypool, and Moore are also up there. The good thing is, the Bears have red zone options 3-4 more than they had last year, so the offense should be improved.

The worst outcome is 6-7 wins where Fields is OK. Then what? The team improved by 3-4 games, Fields was slightly better average 175 passing yards a game. Would that be enough? I think Fields needs to definitively show that he is the guy, and it starts on Sunday. Beat the Packers handily, show the world you are light years ahead of Jordan Love.

Gary is also coming back from injury, so who knows how many snaps he will get or how explosive he will be. Watson has some big play potential, but I never saw him as a WR1. Doubs is good, but probably a WR3. I don't know how much drop off there is from those two to other guys at this point. It is going to come down to stopping Aaron Jones and his stupid screens and wheel routes. I can see Love using him a ton. Gotta stop the run and gotta stop the screen game.

I just sent you the invite, so you can take control, change the name, make roster adjustments. If he wants to take back over later (since he will be laid up for a bit), I can always transfer back to him.