2014 NFL Draft Open Thread

[Chitownhustla]

As usual, blow me.

 

Fuller could be great. I hope he is. But the simple fact is, S and DT were greater needs. And the S class was thin. The reason I was happy yesterday - still happier than during a JA draft - is because Emery's past showed that he liked to attack positions of need. So, when he had a chance to do that, and didn't, it's upsetting. If he feels Fuller plays FS this year and then moves back to DB, doubt it, then so be it. But right now it looks like he drafted a 2014 nickel corner with a first round pick when full time starting, stud FS's were on the board.

 

 

In Emerys press release he stated they see him as a CB. No mention of S.

 

 

So far I like what Emery has done with FA and drafting and trades, I was shocked by the Long pick but look how good that turned out. Everyone said he could be the best CB in the draft and we got him at 14.

 

 

Excited for the second round!!! Come on Emery make something happen!!!

[CrackerDog]

Fuller could be great.

 

Mayock had him as the 13th best prospect with no DB's ahead of him, corner or safety. So as far as I'm concerned, there's no "could be" about it. Dix was at 16 and Pryor was 22. Not a huge drop in either case and as I mentioned, I like Pryor a lot.

 

So, the point is, Mayock had him rated higher than either prospect we liked at safety, he can play any DB position and he'll ultimately become Nut's successor. Your blathering about having to draft almost exclusively based on immediate need is irritating. Think outside your little box once in a while.

[dawhizz]

Mayock had him as the 13th best prospect with no DB's ahead of him, corner or safety. So as far as I'm concerned, there's no "could be" about it. Dix was at 16 and Pryor was 22. Not a huge drop in either case and as I mentioned, I like Pryor a lot.

 

So, the point is, Mayock had him rated higher than either prospect we liked at safety, he can play any DB position and he'll ultimately become Nut's successor. Your blathering about having to draft almost exclusively based on immediate need is irritating. Think outside your little box once in a while.

 

So, all it takes for a prospect to be great is for Mayock to like him? Blaine Gabbert will be so relieved to hear that (his #4 prospect and top QB in that draft). So will Shea McClellin (his #14 prospect) and Gabe Carimi (who he called a plug and play starter at RT and starter for the next ten years). Truth is, some guys loved Fuller, others did not. Defending the pick based on the rankings of one guy doesn't make sense to me. You say he can play any DB position, but we don't know that and Fuller admitted he has never played safety (closest he came was inverted safety against Georgia Tech, which is more like a LB than anything else). I hope he's the best CB out of this class. But for a team that wants to win now, I have a hard time believing that a nickel CB helps this team next year more than a starting safety.

[jason]

Mayock had him as the 13th best prospect with no DB's ahead of him, corner or safety. So as far as I'm concerned, there's no "could be" about it. Dix was at 16 and Pryor was 22. Not a huge drop in either case and as I mentioned, I like Pryor a lot.

 

So, the point is, Mayock had him rated higher than either prospect we liked at safety, he can play any DB position and he'll ultimately become Nut's successor. Your blathering about having to draft almost exclusively based on immediate need is irritating. Think outside your little box once in a while.

 

I see what you're saying, but ultimately Mayock has about as good of a chance of knowing who will do well as anyone else. There is a reason each team doesn't agree on which player is best, best fit, etc.

 

I'm just not a fan of strict BPA when there is BPA and need at a very similar rating. Nobody can convince me that Fuller's rating was so much more than HHCD or Pryor at that point (i.e. HHCD at 16). It's not exclusively based on immediate need, but that is absolutely something a team has to consider. I don't have a metric worked out or anything, but if I were doing it I'd have a big board with ratings, but I'd also have a multiplier of some kind that factored in what positions are currently the worst on the Bears, and what positions are deepest in the draft.

 

Thinking simply and only BPA is just plain stupid, and it's the reason Matt Millen didn't last long picking WR year after year for the Lions.

[jason]

So, all it takes for a prospect to be great is for Mayock to like him? Blaine Gabbert will be so relieved to hear that (his #4 prospect and top QB in that draft). So will Shea McClellin (his #14 prospect) and Gabe Carimi (who he called a plug and play starter at RT and starter for the next ten years). Truth is, some guys loved Fuller, others did not. Defending the pick based on the rankings of one guy doesn't make sense to me. You say he can play any DB position, but we don't know that and Fuller admitted he has never played safety (closest he came was inverted safety against Georgia Tech, which is more like a LB than anything else). I hope he's the best CB out of this class. But for a team that wants to win now, I have a hard time believing that a nickel CB helps this team next year more than a starting safety.

 

HAHA! Exactly. Guys like Mayock, McShay, and Kiper have WAY more connections than we do. No doubt about it. But the simple fact is, they throw so much shit against the wall on a consistent basis because their hit percentage is horrible. Their guess is as good as ours. Out of all the picks yesterday, there were very few surprises in my mind. I called the first 3 including Bortles, missed on Buffalo's post-trade pick (thought they'd go OL), and then hit on the next 3. After that it was a mess (got Mosley, HHCD - as well as Manziel and Bridgewater once the trades happened), but guess what, so was Mayock's mock. He only hit on FOUR picks in the first round. I'd bet just about everyone on the board hit on more than Mayock's four players.

[CrackerDog]

I'd bet just about everyone on the board hit on more than Mayock's four players.

 

My point isn't that he got more of his picks right than anyone else. There's literally no way to tell which direction a draft is going to go given all of the personalities involved, etc. The point is what you said earlier in your post, that he has more contacts and is therefore better able, or at least should be, to evaluate the talent in the draft. Of course teams are going to see things differently but his top 25 list is pretty solid as evidenced not by the fact that historically all of his picks turn into great players (as DaWhizz was suggesting I was claiming) but rather by the fact that they typically go about 80% or so in the first 25 picks. In other words, he and others like his are the "collective wisdom" of the league, a consensus if you will. And therefore, I'm not saying that there's any guarantee on any player, just that based on that matrix he's just as likely to succeed or fail as the other guys somewhat around him in the list. And in many ways it's lists like his (I personnally think he does a better job than Kiper) that guys like you, internet sites, etc start off with as a baseline when forming your own opinions as to the relative value of the players available. Nobody has the time to see every player in every game. We watch the Senior Bowl, a game or two each week, etc. Maybe look up some video on YouTube, whatever. These guys have entire networks and staffs helping them peice this stuff together. The last thing ESPN wants to do is put Kiper out there as their expert and have him listing guys at the top of his sheet who all go in the second round! They'd look like fools.

 

In that respect, I feel good that we got a guy who should pan out. And I trust that source material more than some dude I argue (in fun) with about almost everything on the internet.

 

The only thing I was fairly sure about in yesterday's draft was that Manziel was going to fall. I got that one right. I don't waste my time putting together mock drafts and such although I got a kick out of the one done here. That was entertaining.

[jason]

My point isn't that he got more of his picks right than anyone else. There's literally no way to tell which direction a draft is going to go given all of the personalities involved, etc. The point is what you said earlier in your post, that he has more contacts and is therefore better able, or at least should be, to evaluate the talent in the draft. Of course teams are going to see things differently but his top 25 list is pretty solid as evidenced not by the fact that historically all of his picks turn into great players (as DaWhizz was suggesting I was claiming) but rather by the fact that they typically go about 80% or so in the first 25 picks. In other words, he and others like his are the "collective wisdom" of the league, a consensus if you will. And therefore, I'm not saying that there's any guarantee on any player, just that based on that matrix he's just as likely to succeed or fail as the other guys somewhat around him in the list. And in many ways it's lists like his (I personnally think he does a better job than Kiper) that guys like you, internet sites, etc start off with as a baseline when forming your own opinions as to the relative value of the players available. Nobody has the time to see every player in every game. We watch the Senior Bowl, a game or two each week, etc. Maybe look up some video on YouTube, whatever. These guys have entire networks and staffs helping them peice this stuff together. The last thing ESPN wants to do is put Kiper out there as their expert and have him listing guys at the top of his sheet who all go in the second round! They'd look like fools.

 

In that respect, I feel good that we got a guy who should pan out. And I trust that source material more than some dude I argue (in fun) with about almost everything on the internet.

 

The only thing I was fairly sure about in yesterday's draft was that Manziel was going to fall. I got that one right. I don't waste my time putting together mock drafts and such although I got a kick out of the one done here. That was entertaining.

 

I think you misunderstood me. I think their connections should give them more ability to pick winners, but since their relative success percentage is lacking (Polian quotes that 50% is great), then their picks should be questioned. Of course, all of what you mentioned increases their chances of success as the draft goes on, and decreases the average person's success. We simply don't have the video, personnel, time, etc. to look into as many players as they do. The big rub to all of this is, many people like me, who watch tons of games, go to several, watch all the video that can be grabbed, etc., have just as good of a shot as picking winners in the first 2 or 3 rounds as they do. I mean, who couldn't talk about just about every one of the guys that got drafted last night? A true draft fan, who has devoted as much time as I have to research, surely can. 4th and 5th rounds? Not so much.

 

As I've always said, just because they're in that position doesn't mean they are all knowing, will make correct selections, or will even have a greater success percentage than someone like you and I on a message board. There is a reason the saying "can't see the forest for the trees" exists. I said for years that I would have done a better job of selecting than Angelo. Now that he's gone, I'm certain the Bears would have been better with me making picks. I don't have a way to support it other than to say who I liked each year based on what the Bears needed and which players I liked. But I had a better hit percentage than he did over his tenure. That's fact. Emery gets a pass right now, because I like the way he has operated for the most part. I really liked his draft last year, once he was rid of Lovie.

 

Based on your position, there is an oddity here. At a certain point, if all the pundits that you so strongly trust are surprised by the Bears' pick (almost all had us going ILB, DT, or S), then you have to question Emery's decisions (unless his "reaches" turn into studs like Long). If he hits, then you have to stop trusting the pundits so much. If he misses, then it reinforces the pundits' opinions, and likely costs Emery his job.

[scs787]

Rumor out there that the Bears are trying to trade a 1st in next years draft for a 2nd this year. They have 5 guys with 1st round grades still available.

 

Ya know, maybe if a team throws in a 4th I wouldn't hate it at all. If they get one of those guys with a 1st round grade it'd basically be like trading a 1st next year for one this year.

 

Team is built to win now IMO so all the help we can get this year is much needed. If they came out of the first 2 rounds with say Fuller/Hageman/Joyner or Brooks I'd be ecstatic.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Rumor out there that the Bears are trying to trade a 1st in next years draft for a 2nd this year. They have 5 guys with 1st round grades still available. Ya know, maybe if a team throws in a 4th I wouldn't hate it at all. If they get one of those guys with a 1st round grade it'd basically be like trading a 1st next year for one this year. Team is built to win now IMO so all the help we can get this year is much needed. If they came out of the first 2 rounds with say Fuller/Hageman/Joyner or Brooks I'd be ecstatic.

 

I would not trade a future first round pick. We may have different needs next year and trading away your most valuable asset to gamble on a rookie this year is not wise.

 

 

[CrackerDog]

I think you misunderstood me.

 

Possible. But I think you overstate your knowledge of the talent out there. Not sure I could prove it either way but regardless I will suggest that you'd have a tough time taking your observations and putting them into the framework of a "Top 200" list or some such thing that would allow you to head into a draft in an organized enough manner to make the picks you claim to be able to make. That framework for us fans is provided by the Mayocks and Kipers of the world. So it's easy for you to say, "Gee, the Bears really need a Safety so let's see, yep, Mayock rates Dix right up there, he'd be my pick here" And then... "Damn it! I'm all in a tizzy now because the Bears didn't take my guy!" Well, maybe he was your guy and maybe he was really a guy who just fit the suit.

 

Now you may say that the GM's on the teams have a similar framework put together for them too by the media guys, their scouts, film, etc. But I premise that without the significant resources others have invested, you wouldn't be nearly as good as you think you are. And I'll also say that it's easier being you because there aren't any consequences. Sure, you might get made fun of by some other idiot on the board but at the end of the day, a GM loses his million dollar job, his wife leaves him, his kids see him as a failure, etc.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Rumor out there that the Bears are trying to trade a 1st in next years draft for a 2nd this year. They have 5 guys with 1st round grades still available.

 

Ya know, maybe if a team throws in a 4th I wouldn't hate it at all. If they get one of those guys with a 1st round grade it'd basically be like trading a 1st next year for one this year.

 

Team is built to win now IMO so all the help we can get this year is much needed. If they came out of the first 2 rounds with say Fuller/Hageman/Joyner or Brooks I'd be ecstatic.

I don't believe in giving up future firsts. Just a bad idea. I believe in robbing other teams of their future firsts.

[adam]

I don't believe in giving up future firsts. Just a bad idea. I believe in robbing other teams of their future firsts.

Yeah, hard to see us doing that. If it is a 2nd for a 2nd with some conditional pick based on the actual picks, fine, but a 1st for a 2nd, no way.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Yeah, hard to see us doing that. If it is a 2nd for a 2nd with some conditional pick based on the actual picks, fine, but a 1st for a 2nd, no way.

If we were giving up a future 1st, we should've jumped into the bottom of the first. That would give you a fifth year option on the contract.

 

[bradjock]

If we were giving up a future 1st, we should've jumped into the bottom of the first. That would give you a fifth year option on the contract.

 

I'd be okay with us giving up a 2nd and a 3rd to move up to get one of the defensive tackles. I like how how there are 4 of them available that at some point were projected to go to the Bears at #14.

[bradjock]

I'd be okay with us giving up a 2nd and a 3rd to move up to get one of the defensive tackles. I like how how there are 4 of them available that at some point were projected to go to the Bears at #14.

 

Dallas going DE helps. Texans going OG helps. So far so good.

[lemonej]

Su' Filo, Demarcus Lawrence so far so good. 17 picks to go

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Dallas going DE helps. Texans going OG helps. So far so good.

I see Marques Lee WR going to Cleveland. They are almost forced to with Gordon's suspension.

[bradjock]

I see Marques Lee WR going to Cleveland. They are almost forced to with Gordon's suspension.

 

Carr to Oakland. More offense, no DT's gone.

[bradjock]

Carr to Oakland. More offense, no DT's gone.

 

Down goes Ha'Gaman. Damn.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Down goes Ha'Gaman. Damn.

Was hoping they went TE. He was one of my original 1st rd selection for the Bears. Still have Tuitt, Nix, and Jernigan.

[lemonej]

We need to brace our selves because Ithink this round will have more trades.

[ParkerBear7]

Was hoping they went TE. He was one of my original 1st rd selection for the Bears. Still have Tuitt, Nix, and Jernigan.

 

 

Wow, Lovie is not calling the shots in TB. Two offensive players in rounds 1 & 2 thus far.

[bradjock]

Was hoping they went TE. He was one of my original 1st rd selection for the Bears. Still have Tuitt, Nix, and Jernigan.

 

Marquise Lee to the Jags. Helluva a player. At least it's offense . . .

[lemonej]

Lions trade up.

['TD']

I wouldn't mind seeing a RB with Forte turning 29 later this year.