Fields compared to other QBs

[adam]

I feel like comparing anyone to Mahomes is not fair, especially Fields. I don't think he will ever get to that level. However, I still think he can be a top 10 QB with top 5 upside with a higher floor than most other QBs due to his escapability. I don't think he is going to be a perennial 300yd passer, which will keep the national media narrative going. I don't know what the obsession is with Fields. He was the 4th QB drafted and not even in the top 10. The spotlight should be on Lawrence, Wilson, and Lance.

 

Case 1 - Lamar Jackson has started (and had 10 attempts) in 49 games in his career. In 24 of those games (basically half), he failed to throw for 200 passing yards. Only 2 of his 24 games under 200 were with 30 or more attempts, which is good. He only has 4 games over 280 passing yards. In his starts, he averages 202 passing yards per game. 

Case 2 - Jalen Hurts has started 20 games in his career. In those games he has failed to throw for 200 yards 10 times (50%). 3 of his 10 games under 200 were with 30 or more attempts. He has thrown for over 280 in 5 games.  He averages 215 passing yards per game. 

Case 3 - Kyler Murray has started 47 games in his career. He has thrown for less than 200 passing yards only 13 times. However, in 8 of his 13 games under 200 were with 30 or more attempts (that's bad). He has 14 games over 280 passing yards. He averages 248 passing yards per game. 

Fields - 11 starts, 6 games under 200 yards passing, and 2 games over 280. He has only 1 game under 200 passing yds with 30 or more attempts (TB loss 38-3). 

Fields looks to be a mix between Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. Murray is way more of a pocket passer than any of them, and that is why his bad game percentage is so high. When he is bad, he is terrible.

Still a very small sample size for Fields (not even an entire season starting yet). 

Now in comparison with his rookie class, Lance has zero 280 yard passing games in his career, and 2x 50-yard rushing games (in 3 games started). Wilson has 1 280 yard passing games and 1x 50 yard rushing games. Lawrence, the most game ready QB, has started 18 games and has 3x 280 yd passing games and has never rushed for more than 39 yards in a game. How about Mac Jones, one of the NFL's top 100 players? In 18 starts, he has 4x 280 yard passing games, and his highest rushing game is 33 yds. 

Fields - 18.2% of games with 280 passing yards, 18.2% of his games with 50 or more rushing yards
Lance - 0% of his games with 280 passing yards, 66.6% of his games with 50 or more rushing yards
Wilson - 7.7% of games with 280 passing yards, 7.7% of his games with 50 or more rushing yards
Lawrence - 16.7% of games with 280 passing yards, 0% of his games with 50 or more rushing yards
Jones - 22.2% of games with 280 passing yards, 0% of his games with 50 or more rushing yards

Lawrence and Jones both have 18 starts, followed by 13 for Wilson and 11 for Fields, and lastly 2 for Lance. Lawrence and Jones have been the most stable and started every game, so they are already getting close to who they are going to be. I think Wilson, Lance, and Fields all need more games to really show who they are. However, it just feels like Fields has the most consistent upside of the group.

[Mongo3451]

This early into a career, it's very hard to compare anything to anything.  Too many variables.

[AZ54]

I agree it's too early especially with stats.  Right now I'm trusting the process and going with what I see.  That includes the film breakdowns I can find.  The early start to the 49ers game looked similar to what we saw against Cleveland last year.  The 2nd half did not.  

[AZ54]

I watched most of the first half of the KC/Chargers game.  We're in good hands with Fields.  I'd take him over Herbert any day of the week.  Mahomes OTOH is a unique arm talent.     

Of the 3 QBs you listed I'm not a big fan of Kyler Murray.  I don't feel he's a QB who brings the talent level upward.  You can win with him but what he did last year once Hopkins was injured is more indicative of who he is.  

I put Hurts in that same category as Murray, a QB you can win with but not because of.   

Lamar Jackson is the opposite of Mahomes because he's a unique talent running with the ball.  I'm impressed though with how much he has improved his passing ability but there is still room for growth.  IMO Baltimore needs to start cultivating that more because Considering what his skillset has been early in his career they've done well to maximize it on the field.  I don't want to see him keep getting injured and end up with a shorter career. 

IMO Fields fits in nicely between them.  He's very good on the run but not elite in lateral agility like Jackson.  OTOH he's a much better passer than Jackson especially as compared to when Jackson was starting his 2nd season.  Fields isn't too far behind Mahomes in arm talent, certainly good enough to make some elite throws which we've already seen at times.  In just his 2nd season week 1 he's already using his eyes to move defenders around on the field.   Just tonight the announcers were complimenting Mahomes, who is in his 5th season in the same offense for doing that.   But Mahomes wasn't doing any of that in the first week of his 2nd season, he also didn't have to.   

We just need to have some patience.  

 

[Stinger226]

I think with the way Nagy handled Justin last year, this is basically his rookie season. Im sure any great QB in his first and second yr took some hits on their future. He is a blue chip prospect and will continue to get better as he goes forward. I cant wait for the wow game where everything goes right for him. The coaching this year is so much better for teaching the game of football to a young team. 

[Mongo3451]

8 hours ago, AZ54 said:

We're in good hands with Fields.  I'd take him over Herbert any day of the week.  

I like Fields, but love Herbert.  This makes me curious: can you expound on why you resoundingly choose Fields?

[AZ54]

45 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I like Fields, but love Herbert.  This makes me curious: can you expound on why you resoundingly choose Fields?

Easy, it was all the inaccurate passes Herbert threw last night.  He had some dimes mixed in for sure including a crazy good deep pass after he was injured (only saw highlight on that one).   What I saw before he was injured was an inconsistent mixed bag.  Even on one play the TV crew highlighted where he was so far behind his inside slant WR on an incompletion, "throw it in front of him and that's a first down".   These weren't passes where he was under pressure but regardless Fields has shown better from a compressed pocket.  

[AZ54]

One thing worth noting from the 49ers game when Fields almost threw a pick on the right sideline to ESB.  In his press conference yesterday Getsy said that was entirely his fault.  He said he has never once had ESB practice that route and shouldn't have called that play.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Easy, it was all the inaccurate passes Herbert threw last night.  He had some dimes mixed in for sure including a crazy good deep pass after he was injured (only saw highlight on that one).   What I saw before he was injured was an inconsistent mixed bag.  Even on one play the TV crew highlighted where he was so far behind his inside slant WR on an incompletion, "throw it in front of him and that's a first down".   These weren't passes where he was under pressure but regardless Fields has shown better from a compressed pocket.  

I hope you are right and Fields ends up better than Herbert cause Herbert is an absolute stud. 

[AZ54]

24 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I hope you are right and Fields ends up better than Herbert cause Herbert is an absolute stud. 

Fields still has many things to improve upon but most importantly I'd like to see his decision making speed up by about 0.5s.  In that aspect I think Herbert was more decisive.  Fields is in a brand new offense so that won't happen overnight but I want to see glimpses of it across the first 4 games.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

I’d rather see how Fields does in year two before I think he’s better than Herbert.  Herbert threw in the neighborhood of 4,300 yard his rookie year and just over 5,000 last year.  His play last night was really gritty, especially at the end (I have no doubt Justin is too).
 

That pick six he threw last night was a calamity of errors.  The play previous TE Everett had made a huge gain then immediately was trying to get off the field when he got up from the tackle.   But because they were in hurry up, he went back in and didn’t run a great route.  Either the coach or Herbert should’ve realized he wasn’t ready to play, especially if they knew he was going to be the hot receiver.  Maybe Herbert should’ve looked him off, maybe Everett should’ve sucked it up.  🤷🏻‍♂️

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Fields still has many things to improve upon but most importantly I'd like to see his decision making speed up by about 0.5s.  In that aspect I think Herbert was more decisive.  Fields is in a brand new offense so that won't happen overnight but I want to see glimpses of it across the first 4 games.  

There were parts of the Niners game where I said if I don't see clear improvements of quickness of decision making over first half of the season - than we might have our answer on Fields. I truly think that is going to be the thing we need to watch - how quickly is he getting the ball out of his hands / processing the field. 

Thankfully there were some flash plays in 2H and a few that involved some quicker decision making - but I'll be honest - I saw a lot of really really bad out of Fields in game one.  Small sample size - and new system - so I'm not jumping to conclusions, but that 1H was about as terrible of a QB performance as you can possibly see.  

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I hope you are right and Fields ends up better than Herbert cause Herbert is an absolute stud. 

The Chargers got screwed with about 10 min to go in the first half.  They got called for a PI on a play that was clearly not.  KC ended up scoring, so a potential 17-0 quickly turned into 10-7.  That's why I believe all plays should be challengable.

[adam]

17 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

The Chargers got screwed with about 10 min to go in the first half.  They got called for a PI on a play that was clearly not.  KC ended up scoring, so a potential 17-0 quickly turned into 10-7.  That's why I believe all plays should be challengable.

Yeah, that was so bad of a call. I am surprised they didn't call it on the Bears in the KC/LAC game.

[adam]

In regards to Herbert:

40 attempts and 6.0 or fewer air yards per attempt is terrible. Big Ben got most of those the last year of his career when he had no arm left. Goff has always had a noodle arm. You don't want to be in this group. Herbert shows so crazy ability but then ends up with stats like this. He feels more like Cutler than Mahomes/Allen, etc.

Can you imagine what Fields would do with Allen, Williams, and Ekeler?

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’d rather see how Fields does in year two before I think he’s better than Herbert.  Herbert threw in the neighborhood of 4,300 yard his rookie year and just over 5,000 last year.  His play last night was really gritty, especially at the end (I have no doubt Justin is too).
 

That pick six he threw last night was a calamity of errors.  The play previous TE Everett had made a huge gain then immediately was trying to get off the field when he got up from the tackle.   But because they were in hurry up, he went back in and didn’t run a great route.  Either the coach or Herbert should’ve realized he wasn’t ready to play, especially if they knew he was going to be the hot receiver.  Maybe Herbert should’ve looked him off, maybe Everett should’ve sucked it up.  🤷🏻‍♂️

I actually didn't say Fields was better than Herbert, just that I like his potential better than Herbert.   I only saw the first ~20min of the game thinking I could see a couple young gold-standard QBs to compare against what I've seen from Fields.  I try to apply the same standard I would for a Bears QB when he misses what should have been an easy first down completion.   I guess another way to look at this could be if Herbert can throw for over 4000 yards with his inconsistencies then Fields should be able to get there as well when talent and scheme come together.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

 I guess another way to look at this could be if Herbert can throw for over 4000 yards with his inconsistencies then Fields should be able to get there as well when talent and scheme come together.  

This I would agree with. If Justin is able to put up similar stats each year I’d agree he’s the better of the two.  Justin has more mobility and just the little sample he showed last week, pretty good read of the field.  I think Herbsret mentioned the other night that it took a year or two for Herbert to start actually getting his progressions. Seems to be that Justin is doing that pretty well already.   

[adam]

So now after this one I have concerns about Fields. 11 Pass attempts in a double digit loss. On the 4 and goal missed sneak drive, I don't even know if he attempted a single pass. 

He is now getting to historic levels of bad and even I am making excuses for him. Bad O-Line, no WRs, etc, etc. However, no other QB with comparable situations is doing this bad. 

For comparison, Mitch was in a new scheme with a new HC in Year 2 and didn't have stinkers like this.  

In no way am I writing Fields off after 2 weeks, but man, he needs to shows something soon.  Fields had the lowest QBR ever for a QB last year and has now opened up this year WITH AN EVEN LOWER QBR (24.0) only higher than Maker Bayfield (23.8) who has been awful. The same bad trend line has not moved. He has a couple of blips but his overall pattern trends as a mediocre NFL backup. 

[Daventry]

21 minutes ago, adam said:

So now after this one I have concerns about Fields. 11 Pass attempts in a double digit loss. On the 4 and goal missed sneak drive, I don't even know if he attempted a single pass. 

He is now getting to historic levels of bad and even I am making excuses for him. Bad O-Line, no WRs, etc, etc. However, no other QB with comparable situations is doing this bad. 

For comparison, Mitch was in a new scheme with a new HC in Year 2 and didn't have stinkers like this.  

In no way am I writing Fields off after 2 weeks, but man, he needs to shows something soon.  Fields had the lowest QBR ever for a QB last year and has now opened up this year WITH AN EVEN LOWER QBR (24.0) only higher than Maker Bayfield (23.8) who has been awful. The same bad trend line has not moved. He has a couple of blips but his overall pattern trends as a mediocre NFL backup. 

I agree, I think we are in trouble.  I hope I am wrong but I don’t feel the future looks good with Fields.

[adam]

Just now, Daventry said:

I agree, I think we are in trouble.  I hope I am wrong but I don’t feel the future looks good with Fields.

Fields may be the biggest conflict I have ever had with the eye test vs stats. I can't tell you how many times I have discounted his actual stats because of how he looked in the game. 

I just think he is not ready. There is no turning back now though, it's not like you can put Trevor in there to start over him. 

He has two weeks (maybe only 1 with how NYG looked) to get things going.

[Mongo3451]

The biggest issue I have with Fields is that he rarely hits his plant foot and is ready to throw.  That is rarely an OL or poor reciever issue.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

He has a couple of blips but his overall pattern trends as a mediocre NFL backup. 

You’re letting the post-Packer-loss-Monday-blahs get the best of you.  There is no way Fields is worse than Trubiksy…in the long run.  
 

As far as his passing technique, they mentioned that last night.  This year brought on a whole new foot placement compared to what he’s been doing his whole career.  Doing that can knock things out of whack enough it may take some time to adjust. His work ethic paired with his talent, he’ll figure it out.  

[adam]

12 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

You’re letting the post-Packer-loss-Monday-blahs get the best of you.  There is no way Fields is worse than Trubiksy…in the long run.  
 

As far as his passing technique, they mentioned that last night.  This year brought on a whole new foot placement compared to what he’s been doing his whole career.  Doing that can knock things out of whack enough it may take some time to adjust. His work ethic paired with his talent, he’ll figure it out.  

The trends are in regards to his raw numbers. At some point, he is who he is. We are not there yet with Fields, but every game, we get one game closer to that. By the end of this year we will definitely be there.

The issue I am noticing with Fields is not his processing, it is his time to execution. You can see him go thru his reads quickly, players open or about to be, but he hesitates. The best example is when he threw the ball when he was past the LOS. EQ was open before he crossed the LOS. He needs to just react quicker.

That is a different problem than Trubisky, who couldn't read a defense unless it was like a Dr. Seuss book. That is Step 1. Fields is on Step 3. He has to pull the trigger faster after reading the play. That is at least fixable and maybe he gets there with more reps. Guys like Allen and Jackson took a couple of seasons to get there. Fields hasn't even played a full season of games yet. 

 

Just a general question, where are the quick slants or easy tosses to TEs in the flat? DBs playing 10 yds off, take the easy 7 yards. TE chips and rolls to the flat, hit em.

It just felt like most of the plays were very slow to develop and easy to defend. Getsy has to be better. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Getsy has to be better. 

This and “Fields hasn’t even played a full season yet” are spot on.  You mentioned the quick underneath routes and timing routes need to be mixed in for Justin to succeed more.  Perhaps with Getsy having a handful of years with Rodgers he’s expecting Justin to be more like him now.  Instead he should do the ‘crawl, walk, run’ method with his game planning.  I’m not at all suggesting he keep him in “Football 101” for 2-3 years (like Trubisky) but coach him up a little better and not assume he’s where Rodgers was at last year.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On 9/15/2022 at 5:13 AM, adam said:

Case 2 - Jalen Hurts has started 20 games in his career. In those games he has failed to throw for 200 yards 10 times (50%). 3 of his 10 games under 200 were with 30 or more attempts. He has thrown for over 280 in 5 games.  He averages 215 passing yards per game

The more I think about this, I think Fields and Hurts are on similar trajectories.  After last night I'm more comfortable in thinking Hurts is (or could be) a legitimate NFL QB.  I liked him coming out of college for the similar reasons I like Fields.  One of those variables was that they both were measurably successful in big school programs. Interestingly enough Fields transferred early in his career to Ohio State because Fromm was going to continue being the starter in Georgia whereas Hurts transferred later in his career to Oklahoma because Tua essentially took over in Alabama.  Both have had their doubters both in college and now in the NFL.  I think Hurts is just starting to emerge and I think Fields will too given more time.  

As a quick aside, I had forgotten that Philly acquired WR AJ Brown in the offseason.  Hurts has both he and his old buddy from Alabama, Devonta Smith, on the team.  No wonder he's getting better.  I think with a few more pieces Justin could be right there too.