Weekly Tankathon Meter

[Pixote]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

yes. for nothing.

Nothing?

We have a young team, They need to know how to win. Gain that swagger our team has not had for ages. This win will pay dividends in the future. 

NE probably just helped solidify the #1 pick for the Bears.

Bears win! NE Loses! ENJOY!!!!!

 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

Nothing?

We have a young team, They need to know how to win. Gain that swagger our team has not had for ages. This win will pay dividends in the future. 

NE probably just helped solidify the #1 pick for the Bears.

Bears win! NE Loses! ENJOY!!!!!

 

I understand that point of view. Im sure you understand mine too. I was hoping we could get a QB with that second pick so we'd have that #1 pick to play with. To me, that's more valuable to the long term success of this team than this win, but again, i understand your point of view too.

Either way we are both happy that Carolina is getting steps closer to having the #1 overall.

I think that if there is a new coaching staff next year, the new culture will be built then. But i also understand how much people dont like hearing about rooting against their team. I really hope we are never here again.

Then again, it's not like the title of this thread from weeks ago isnt 'Tankathon" lol so someone musta thought it!

Anyway, I'm looking forward to resolution at QB and coach and starting next year with everyone aligned on this board with optimism and hoping to win each game in front of us.

And if it is a new QB, with patience for them to have growing pains too.

I'm not the negative person you might think I am. I just dont believe in justin or Eberflus anymore. I still love the team, and i still think we have a bright future next year.

[Bears4Ever_34]

One more CAR loss guarantees the Bears the #1 pick.

I'm still nervous as hell, though, because JAC might not have Lawrence next week after leaving the game again because of a shoulder. He's been banged up this past month, and the Jaguars are going through their worst stretch of the entire season right now.

TB could very well be playing for nothing week 18 and rest some or most of their starters. We need to root for N.O next week to beat them to ensure that game will mean something.

[BearFan PHX]

Just now, Bears4Ever_34 said:

We need to root for N.O next week to beat them to ensure that game will mean something.

amen

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Wow Pats win, Bears #1 pick now basically a lock.

Cards are still just a win off the top pick right? And Panthers are going to have an easy game in final week as Bucs likely are playing for nothing. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

Nothing?

We have a young team, They need to know how to win. Gain that swagger our team has not had for ages. This win will pay dividends in the future. 

NE probably just helped solidify the #1 pick for the Bears.

Bears win! NE Loses! ENJOY!!!!!

 

I agree. Bears are going to have one high end pick (top 3 locked up) and another top 15. Whether 7 or 15 doesn’t matter if it is because young players are flashing and the young dbs and defense as a whole is flashing. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

I thought for sure NE was tanking it in the fourth quarter. Belichick sure didn't seem happy, LOL

I figure Beli wants to win cause he won’t be there so he has zero incentive to tank. Really only team in on tanking of the bottom 3 is Cardinals. Panthers don’t care since they don’t have the pick and Pats coach is a goner so what does he care (ala Lovie last year). 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

5 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

One more CAR loss guarantees the Bears the #1 pick.

I'm still nervous as hell, though, because JAC might not have Lawrence next week after leaving the game again because of a shoulder. He's been banged up this past month, and the Jaguars are going through their worst stretch of the entire season right now.

TB could very well be playing for nothing week 18 and rest some or most of their starters. We need to root for N.O next week to beat them to ensure that game will mean something.

I am like you - I am terrified they end up with 3rd pick. 

[BearFan PHX]

the difference between 7 and 15 is that at 7 Daniels and Penix are still there, and by 15 they are both gone. Thats a huge difference because it ties up your top pick for QB, and you lose all these cinderella scenarios of trading the #1 (or 2) pick for a haul.

It's a huge difference to our roster.

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/ALL/1/2024

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Just now, BearFan PHX said:

the difference between 7 and 15 is that at 7 Daniels and Penix are still there, and by 15 they are both gone. Thats a huge difference because it ties up your top pick for QB, and you lose all these cinderella scenarios of trading the #1 (or 2) pick for a haul.

It's a huge difference to our roster.

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/ALL/1/2024

I don’t think any of those guys are worth a pick at 7 or 15. Certainly not Penix and I don’t think Daniels either. Dude was mediocre until this year. 
 

Williams or Maye or McCarthy…or take whomever drops in the 2nd round. But if I’m taking the qb - and you have the 1 - don’t get cute - take the guy you think is the best - unless you really think 2 are great but even than you can only move down 1 spot which is kind of hard to do. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

Btw, Caleb Williams just liked a tweet from some dumbass Fields fanboy telling him the city wants Fields and they should draft MHJ.

Hard to tell if he's making some sort of preemptive statement about where he wants to play (or doesn't), or if he's doing it to keep receipts. 

Here's the tweet he liked:

 

[BearFan PHX]

5 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I don’t think any of those guys are worth a pick at 7 or 15. Certainly not Penix and I don’t think Daniels either. Dude was mediocre until this year. 
 

Williams or Maye or McCarthy…or take whomever drops in the 2nd round. But if I’m taking the qb - and you have the 1 - don’t get cute - take the guy you think is the best - unless you really think 2 are great but even than you can only move down 1 spot which is kind of hard to do. 

I got you, if you dont like those guys that changes everything of course. I still need to know more about them.

I have a feeling Im gonna want Daniels or Penix, but it could all change after I know more than just stats and measureables, and actually watch some film.

I also like your point about not getting cute. It's just if you have pick 5, you can kinda get cute. But as we fall, youre right.

I had a dream of MHJr and new QB. Or one of those ridiculous trade down scenarios and still getting the right QB.

But maybe youre right. If they love Maye or whoever, just take him.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

I got you, if you dont like those guys that changes everything of course. I still need to know more about them.

I have a feeling Im gonna want Daniels or Penix, but it could all change after I know more than just stats and measureables, and actually watch some film.

I also like your point about not getting cute. It's just if you have pick 5, you can kinda get cute. But as we fall, youre right.

I had a dream of MHJr and new QB. Or one of those ridiculous trade down scenarios and still getting the right QB.

But maybe youre right. If they love Maye or whoever, just take him.

I just assume - if a guy is rating that high - multiple teams will be in on them. Doesn’t mean the teams won’t be right and one of the secondary picks end up better - but you take the guy you think is best and if you think he is that good you are taking them at 1. I don’t see a team going - you know - we are going to pass on the first 3 and than try the 4th guy to be our starter? 
 

Now if you are picking at 11 and all you have is a pick at the 4th/5th guy - fine. But I’m probably sticking with Fields vs taking 3rd or 4th qb off the board. 

[Stinger226]

8 hours ago, Pixote said:

Nothing?

We have a young team, They need to know how to win. Gain that swagger our team has not had for ages. This win will pay dividends in the future. 

NE probably just helped solidify the #1 pick for the Bears.

Bears win! NE Loses! ENJOY!!!!!

 

Does anyone think Tomlin or Belichick are going to lose to get a higher pick? They just both won this week , hell no. Winning creates a winning culture, much more important than a couple higher spots in the draft. That is what losing cultures do, we are trying to change that. Whether we change QBs or not, the rest of the players that are going to be here and they need to learn how to win. There is a 90% chance we are picking #1, that is the prize, not pick 7 instead of pick 9.

[Daventry]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Does anyone think Tomlin or Belichick are going to lose to get a higher pick? They just both won this week , hell no. Winning creates a winning culture, much more important than a couple higher spots in the draft. That is what losing cultures do, we are trying to change that. Whether we change QBs or not, the rest of the players that are going to be here and they need to learn how to win. There is a 90% chance we are picking #1, that is the prize, not pick 7 instead of pick 9.

You can keep saying it as many times as you like, but that is bullsh£t.  The culture will be re-set next year.  I don’t expect the players to quit, but I will continue to hope they lose pointless games that only results in sliding down the draft board.

[Stinger226]

14 minutes ago, Daventry said:

You can keep saying it as many times as you like, but that is bullsh£t.  The culture will be re-set next year.  I don’t expect the players to quit, but I will continue to hope they lose pointless games that only results in sliding down the draft board.

You're entitled to your opinion, but the statement doesn't change. Winning teams value winning, I don't  think Flus is leaving so the team and him are going to have a meeting and say we should lose more games so we can get a higher pick. Poles may think that but would never say it.  You're right  culture will change with a new OC , maybe a new QB but the other players could give a crap what fans think. You said it yourself, players ain't going to quit, their playing in the game. 

[adam]

If CAR wins one, Bears get the #1 pick. If CAR wins 2 of 2, it could drop to #4. 

So the best the Bears can do is #1 and #6 

and at worst it could be #4 and #18

[Stinger226]

26 minutes ago, adam said:

If CAR wins one, Bears get the #1 pick. If CAR wins 2 of 2, it could drop to #4. 

So the best the Bears can do is #1 and #6 

and at worst it could be #4 and #18

Carolina may win one but 2 is very unlikely.

[Mongo3451]

Winning and learning to finish games > draft position. (Especially when you have #1 in the chamber)

[adam]

42 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Winning and learning to finish games > draft position. (Especially when you have #1 in the chamber)

Absolutely, rarely can you get the best of both worlds. If they can go into the offseason with 3 straight wins, and beating GB to knock them out of the playoffs while still getting the #1 overall pick would be epic. 

[adam]

Here are the outcomes and projected draft pick range for the Bears:

6-11 (#7 if TEN wins 1, #8 if TEN loses 2) with Jets at 6 wins, CHI jumps them with 2 losses.

7-10 (#9 if NO or ATL lose 2, #8 if NO and ATL win at least 1 of 2) all 6x 7-8 teams play each other, so 3 of those teams will get to 8 wins. Only NO and or ATL can pass CHI with SoS.

8-9 (#10 to #12), based on SoS, it looks like no 8-win team can drop below CHI, all 6x 7-8 teams play each other, so 3 of those teams will get to 8 wins. Only NO and or ATL can pass CHI with SoS.

So it seems at best the Bears can get to #7 with 2 losses and a TEN win, but #8 seems like the most probable outcome if CHI and TEN both lose 2. 

The most probable outcome is Bears winning 1. That would put them at 7 wins, at worse that slides them to #9 if they win one and the loser of ATL/NO loses their other game. ATL plays CHI. So #8 or #9, odds say #9 here.

Then we have 2 wins. That gets the Bears to 8-9, with 3 of the 7 win teams going to 8 makes them all drop. If Bears win 2, that means ATL has to lose at least one, so they drop below the Bears to #9, making #10 the best the Bears can get, and it looks like at worst #12 (unless they make the playoffs).

So #7 - #12 is my projected draft range for the Bears pick.

[adam]

How Bears can win 2 and still pick in the top 10:

CHI beats ATL
NO beats TB and ATL
DEN beats LAC
LVR beats DEN
GB beats MIN
MIN beats DET
CHI beats GB
CHI at 8-9 picking #10

This would be a pretty crazy outcome if they didn't make the playoffs.

[jason]

On 11/12/2023 at 10:10 PM, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I saw a video earlier that read something about how Williams would be a better QB because of all the plays he makes in college.  Problem was the video they were using were highlight videos of Justin in his OSU days.  
 

One thing I go back to time and again is looking at Justin’s collegiate record . He was something like 22-2 overall with a 5-1 (I think) record against SEC teams.  He made the playoffs in each of his last two seasons and played damn good in those games against other top NATIONALLY ranked teams.  
 

From what I’ve seen is Williams withers on the vibe when he plays against top 10 teams and Maye aside from having one more “starting” season at UNC, all I can think is Trubisky 2.0.  

That's one of the primary reasons I want to stick with Fields. When he has a competent team around him, maybe even a good team, he excels. And he it against some of the best teams in the NCAA, as you mentioned.

Meanwhile, Caleb Williams has elite talent all around him, and he struggles in the garbage-ass PAC12, a conference that's imploding before our eyes.

When Fields has nobody threatening at RB, a single WR that can get open, and OLinemen taking turns impersonating turn-styles, how in the world can the dude consistently be good?

Stick with Fields, trade the #1 for a haul, build the team. Makes the most sense. Drafting a QB #1 and then giving him the same, flawed options Fields has is a recipe for disaster that will set the franchise back another 4-5 years. Again.

[Pixote]

22 minutes ago, jason said:

That's one of the primary reasons I want to stick with Fields. When he has a competent team around him, maybe even a good team, he excels. And he it against some of the best teams in the NCAA, as you mentioned.

Meanwhile, Caleb Williams has elite talent all around him, and he struggles in the garbage-ass PAC12, a conference that's imploding before our eyes.

When Fields has nobody threatening at RB, a single WR that can get open, and OLinemen taking turns impersonating turn-styles, how in the world can the dude consistently be good?

Stick with Fields, trade the #1 for a haul, build the team. Makes the most sense. Drafting a QB #1 and then giving him the same, flawed options Fields has is a recipe for disaster that will set the franchise back another 4-5 years. Again.

Excellent post, I agree 100%

[killakrzydav]

Probably goes down as the biggest trade in bears history