Weekly Tankathon Meter

[adam]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Between 2007-18 the Browns drafted 5 “generational” QBs.  None of them worked out.  We’ve done this now twice since 2017.  (And this coming from a guy who generally thinks 1st round picks should be used on skill players).  I should add I’m a fan of getting a QB like McCarthy (from Michigan) but not until later in the draft.  
 

One thing a lot of people are dismissing is how well Justin was playing before he got hurt.  In those games he threw for 617 yards, 8TDs with 1 INT.  Also since that time the Bears have increased their running game to 4th overall in the NFL and their defense is ranked 14th overall (2nd in the rush game).  What was the common thread with this team early in the season (if you exclude two coaches getting fired)?  The defense was playing with third string players, the oline was a mess and Getsy was making questionable calls (one of those three things hasn’t changed).  
 

My belief is you need to build better around Justin and stockpile draft picks.  And probably change some coaches.  If Justin’s thumb doesn’t become a factor, I think we’re in for a great close out to this season.  

The problem now is, if you get past the 3rd pick, you will miss out on MHJ. Maye and Williams are going 1 and 2, regardless of the order, then MHJ is basically a lock at #3. No one not picking a QB is going to pass on him. So for the Bears, can you afford to not only pass on a new QB but also a true generational talent at WR by trading the 1st pick?

The Bears may have to stay at #1 unless the #3 team wants to move up. That would be the only move they could afford. Otherwise you take MHJ at #1. Then take DL at #5 or trade down from that pick.

[adam]

1 minute ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Kyler is good. I think I would be interested in a trade for Kyler if they could somehow structure clean from a cap perspective. Bears get number 1 trade it for both cardinals picks plus Kyler and a future first. 
 

Than you have future assets a solid qb and tons of picks. 

I guess it would depend on where their pick ends up. If they keep winning, it may be around pick 6 or 7. Right now at #2, really no incentive to move up one, losing the extra 1st and losing Kyler. That would be a crazy good move for the Bears, especially because they could still move Fields to ATL for their 1st. 

[BearFan PHX]

11 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So who is “that guy” for Chicago? 

right. I have no idea. I expect the scouting staff to find answers to those questions, and take another chance on another highly rated QB and hope this guy develops within a couple years into the real deal, or we do it again until we do find that guy.

By the time you KNOW a QB is a top 5 QB, he is no longer available to you. There are some interesting names out there, but I dont think I could do better than a coin flip on any of them since the pros cant either.

But I dont think that stops you from buying those raffle tickets. 50% odds is still pretty good if you get a franchise QB out of the deal. We swung and missed on Fields and Trubisky, so maybe it goes our way this time.

And as feeble as that sounds, it is literally the only path I think.

[BearFan PHX]

13 minutes ago, adam said:

The problem now is, if you get past the 3rd pick, you will miss out on MHJ. Maye and Williams are going 1 and 2, regardless of the order, then MHJ is basically a lock at #3. No one not picking a QB is going to pass on him. So for the Bears, can you afford to not only pass on a new QB but also a true generational talent at WR by trading the 1st pick?

The Bears may have to stay at #1 unless the #3 team wants to move up. That would be the only move they could afford. Otherwise you take MHJ at #1. Then take DL at #5 or trade down from that pick.

Id love to have MHJ, maybe you trade down the other pick and get a second tier QB in the second half of the first round?  Someone like JJ Mccarthy?

And you dont do it because you want MHJ, you do it because your staff thinks JJ is the man, and youve read the market well enough to know that you can still get him at #10 or whatever. Its such a gamble.

[adam]

 

38 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Id love to have MHJ, maybe you trade down the other pick and get a second tier QB in the second half of the first round?  Someone like JJ Mccarthy?

And you dont do it because you want MHJ, you do it because your staff thinks JJ is the man, and youve read the market well enough to know that you can still get him at #10 or whatever. Its such a gamble.

It is going to be crazy interesting. I think all of that is on the table. My thought process is there is no way Poles can go into 2024 after having back to back #1 picks and not take a QB with either one (and potentially trading both).
 

Right now it seems like NYG, ARZ, NE, GB, and potentially LAR could all be in the market for a QB in the top 8. 

Week 12 is massive for draft order with 6 of the bottom 8 playing each other. 3 teams are guaranteed a win and will bump themselves away from the 1st pick.  The best game is NYG vs NE, one of those 2 win teams will have 3 wins. ARZ and LAR as well. One of those teams tacks on another win. 

[killakrzydav]

Huge win for Arizona!

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Between 2007-18 the Browns drafted 5 “generational” QBs.  None of them worked out.  We’ve done this now twice since 2017.

You don't know your ass from a hole in the ground, when it comes to generational quarterbacks.(just like me, so you know the above was for laughs)  Cleveland didn't draft one and neither did we.  Nobody called the Cleveland five and our last two generational.  Experts determine that crap.  Guys like you and I just have the eye test.  They considered Luck and Lawrence the last two "can't miss" guys.  Now they are saying Williams and Maye will be the first two generational talents, in the same draft, in decades.  You were right about Trubisky being a scrub.  I hope you also correct on Fields, because that would be our best draft scenario.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

11 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

You don't know your ass from a hole in the ground, when it comes to generational quarterbacks.(just like me, so you know the above was for laughs)  Cleveland didn't draft one and neither did we. 

Triggered much?  You’re right.  I did it for laughs because I think the “experts” are as wrong as anyone else.  The term “generational” player, especially with regards to QBs when the “experts” say it is not only  hyperbole it’s laughable.  I’ll ask again, where were these experts with their generational tag with Tom Brady and hell Peyton Manning?  And right now everyone’s excited about CJ Stroud and all the things he’s doing in Houston.  Where was his pre-draft hype?  

My point was moreso about the “can’t miss” 1st round draft picks at QB the “experts” keep telling us about and really how ridiculous they sound when they say “generational”.

 

 

[Mongo3451]

6 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Peyton Manning

This is the standard to go by.  I believe this was the last draft of two generational prospects. Of course we know Manning and Leaf went polar opposite directions in their careers.  Taking it full circle to Trubisky and Fields, some still believe in Justin like others believed in Trubisky and vice versa.  Say a football prayer for the last seven games...

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Cool, so now i understand the nature of our disagreement.

1) You think its less likely than 50% to find that great QB in the draft.

I cant say youre wrong. i dunno how Poles is at picking QBs. I also worry that it'll just be the same thing over again.

2a) You think Fields is going to develop into a good player

Here is where we really disagree. I see Fields' obvious skills. His legs, his arm, his size, all extremely impressive. But I hope we also agree that he hasnt really shown an ability to be a pocket passer. I think that's critical to NFL success in the modern age. Not to beating the bottom half of the league, but to be a contender, I think it's a necessity to have a QB who can read and exploit defenses.

2b) You think we can contend without a top 5 QB if we put a team around Fields.

I also think this is a vestage of days gone by, in the 1990s and before, complementary football worked. Tony Dungy could wear you down with time of possession and a bend dont break defense. Bill Parcells could win a Super Bowl with Jeff Hostetler.

You can still beat the lesser teams that way. But you're never going to beat KC, Miami, Philadelphia etc without being able to put up points, and lots of them. The rules have changed and defense no longer wins championships. And dont get me wrong defense is still extremely important, but the end of these contending playoff football games almost always comes down to who the last team to hold the ball is, as high scoring teams lead comebacks and trade leads back and forth in the 4th quarter.

So you may still think that Fields will become that guy, or that if you build a team around him, he doesnt have to be that guy.

I disagree with you about Fields, but I could be wrong. I hope I am, but I sure havent seen it yet and time is running out.

But I know that you need a top QB to win a Super Bowl in the modern age, so I think you're definitely wrong about building around a lesser QB as a recipe for success?

I went back and watched tape on Justin at OSU and then watch tape on C. Williams, there are some similarities there. My point is its not just drafting a QB, its takes development and a team built around him. Poles never drafted Justin , so he owes him nothing. Poles did pick up Bagent and that looks like a good find. I get you dont think Fields can become a good QB and I think we will find out in the next 7 games. He doesnt have to throw for 300 yds and 3 TDs every game to be THAT QB , Poles will figure it out and i trust him. If he plays well and we win more than we lose that could be enough for Poles. We just dont know. 

I think Grizzys point is with a new QB, even a good one, it will continue the rebuild mold. I think Poles has to start winning next year to keep his job and there is no guarantee with the top 2. I personally think Fields may thrive here with the right OC and MHJ, a new center, 3T and some more depth on the OL and DL but he has to have more good games than bad in the next 7 to show that.  

[Stinger226]

58 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

You don't know your ass from a hole in the ground, when it comes to generational quarterbacks.(just like me, so you know the above was for laughs)  Cleveland didn't draft one and neither did we.  Nobody called the Cleveland five and our last two generational.  Experts determine that crap.  Guys like you and I just have the eye test.  They considered Luck and Lawrence the last two "can't miss" guys.  Now they are saying Williams and Maye will be the first two generational talents, in the same draft, in decades.  You were right about Trubisky being a scrub.  I hope you also correct on Fields, because that would be our best draft scenario.

QBs picked high are a crap shoot, if we drafted Mahomes and he came to Chicago , I somehow feel he wouldnt be as good as he is in KC. KC had a team already built with a great coach so he blossomed. I think Poles will make the right decision at the time he needs to. Personally if Fields looks decent, and we add the right components and get a good coach, it may have been the right choice. Like you said, its our best scenario than starting over with a rookie QB.

[BearFan PHX]

48 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I went back and watched tape on Justin at OSU and then watch tape on C. Williams, there are some similarities there.

Yeah, that worries me too.
 

1 hour ago, adam said:

My thought process is there is no way Poles can go into 2024 after having back to back #1 picks and not take a QB with either one

This is what I think too.

So the million dollar question is: which QB is the right one to pick? And I am SO glad that isn't my decision.

Maybe as we see more tape and I do more homework I'll start to get a guy I want to hang my hat on, but right now, I'm damned if i know who it should be.

We just need to draft a QB in 2024, and he needs to be great. No pressure.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

I went back and watched tape on Justin at OSU and then watch tape on C. Williams, there are some similarities there. My point is its not just drafting a QB, its takes development and a team built around him.

I saw a video earlier that read something about how Williams would be a better QB because of all the plays he makes in college.  Problem was the video they were using were highlight videos of Justin in his OSU days.  
 

One thing I go back to time and again is looking at Justin’s collegiate record . He was something like 22-2 overall with a 5-1 (I think) record against SEC teams.  He made the playoffs in each of his last two seasons and played damn good in those games against other top NATIONALLY ranked teams.  
 

From what I’ve seen is Williams withers on the vibe when he plays against top 10 teams and Maye aside from having one more “starting” season at UNC, all I can think is Trubisky 2.0.  

[AZ54]

5 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Kyler is good. I think I would be interested in a trade for Kyler if they could somehow structure clean from a cap perspective. Bears get number 1 trade it for both cardinals picks plus Kyler and a future first. 
 

Than you have future assets a solid qb and tons of picks. 

Yeah, a ton of Cards fans would love you for making that deal.  

[AZ54]

5 hours ago, adam said:

The problem now is, if you get past the 3rd pick, you will miss out on MHJ. Maye and Williams are going 1 and 2, regardless of the order, then MHJ is basically a lock at #3. No one not picking a QB is going to pass on him. So for the Bears, can you afford to not only pass on a new QB but also a true generational talent at WR by trading the 1st pick?

The Bears may have to stay at #1 unless the #3 team wants to move up. That would be the only move they could afford. Otherwise you take MHJ at #1. Then take DL at #5 or trade down from that pick.

You are not properly taking into account position value and LT is way ahead of WR on that list.  There are 3 OTs currently in the top 10 although I don't know if all are true LT prospects.  So is Edge rusher.  

[Stinger226]

If Fields looks bad in the last 7 games , I do think Poles drafts a QB but not sure it's with our first pick. That is the draft capital we need to  set our franchise up for the next 5 years. Since Braxton Jones is back , he is trending to being our long term solution at LT. I think we definitely need to add a swing OT  type for our depth issues. We absolutely have to add a OC , 3T, another edge, FS. He can do that if he trades our top pick. There's enough QB prospects in this draft that someone out of the first round could be good. I don't think our top pick will be a QB. I do want MHJ but that might not work out that way. Poles legacy will be set in this off-season, for good or bad.

[Pixote]

Taking a break from the trade Fields talk (which I do not think will happen and I would not want to happen lol) I want to clarify if I am correct in this:

Even if the Panthers were to win another game, and join ARI, NEP & NYG with 2 wins, Carolina would still hold the number one pick (well, the Bears would) because they have a weaker SOS than ARI, NEP & NYG. Correct?

[BearFan PHX]

41 minutes ago, Pixote said:

Taking a break from the trade Fields talk (which I do not think will happen and I would not want to happen lol) I want to clarify if I am correct in this:

Even if the Panthers were to win another game, and join ARI, NEP & NYG with 2 wins, Carolina would still hold the number one pick (well, the Bears would) because they have a weaker SOS than ARI, NEP & NYG. Correct?

yes thats my understanding.

[Pixote]

Fantastic!

I am sure that the #1 pick in 2014 will bring in a much larger haul than last the one we traded in the 2013 draft. Better QB class, larger number of desperate teams looking for a new QB.

I Love it!

[DABEARSDABOMB]

58 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

yes thats my understanding.

With that said Strength of Schedule moves, so just because that is true now, doesn't mean it holds up by season(s) end.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

53 minutes ago, Pixote said:

Fantastic!

I am sure that the #1 pick in 2014 will bring in a much larger haul than last the one we traded in the 2013 draft. Better QB class, larger number of desperate teams looking for a new QB.

I Love it!

And if we are one of those desperate teams - we don't have to trade and give up a bunch of assets to get there. We can draft him and still have another good pick which we could either trade down or use to fill other voids (plus cap space, etc).  

[BearFan PHX]

28 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

With that said Strength of Schedule moves, so just because that is true now, doesn't mean it holds up by season(s) end.  

I had thought it was based on last years finish, but I think youre right. Thanks for the info.

[adam]

CAR lost, ARZ lost, CHI lost, NYG won (yay), GB won (yay). 

1. CAR 1-9
2. ARZ 2-9
3. NE 2-8
4. CHI 3-8
5. NYG 3-8
6. TEN 3-7

Tommy DeVito has as many wins as Fields. He just went 18-26, 246 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT in a win against WAS. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

That game against ARZ in a couple weeks could determine a lot. Right now, CAR wins all the tiebreakers with all the 2 or 3 win teams, so we can afford 1 win from them and still be in good shape, but a 1 game lead is way too close for comfort.

CAR's schedule gets super easy the rest of the way. Between TEN, TB(2), ATL, and GB, I see at least 2 wins there. They play JAC in week 17, and depending on what happens with HOU, they could have the division wrapped up by then and rest some of their players. It's not going to be easy. If they lose next week to TEN, I will certainly feel a lot more comfortable.

[adam]

Next week is the last week where multiple bad teams face off against each other. CAR will hopefully lose to TEN but even if they tied with ARZ, CAR would still have the tiebreaker. So either CAR or TEN loss helps the Bears. The other game is going to help the Bears as NE or NYG will walk away with a win. With NE at 2-8, it would be better for them to get a win to drop the Bears back to #3. Then it is praying Kyler Murray gets hot.

If the Bears play like they did today against other teams, they will be ATL, ARZ, and GB and might beat MIN. They also have a shot at beating DET after their bye. CLE will be a tough game but winnable as well.

Since the Bears are coached so bad, they probably only win 2, even though they could win out. So 5-12 is probably the number. That would mean the Giants and Titans need 2 more wins and the Pats and Cards need 3.

That outcome would give the Bears pick #1 and #2. Assuming at least one of those teams flounders, at worst the Bears should get #1 and #4 (where they are at today). #1 and #3 would almost assuredly mean a QB and MHJ. It could also mean, trade out of #1 and take MHJ at #3.