The Chicago Bears are on the clock! OFFSEASON OPEN THREAD!

[killakrzydav]

No red flags. He’s an overturner of applecarts back to his Oklahoma days. Him not embracing Chicago culture and history yea. Red flag. But he did

[BearFan PHX]

some of these "Red Flags" are recycled things from months ago. Remember that we are in pre draft smokescreen land. Any negative piece on Caleb has the effect of getting lots of clicks AND you can imagine there are some other teams wanting to muddy the waters on Caleb hoping to maybe shake him free from Chicago.

That may sound paranoid, but understand these teams hire private investigators and teams of researchers to find out everything about all of these kids. If you connect your franchise to a top QB prospect, and he grows into his potential, you are talking about eventually giving a guy like over a quarter of a billion dollars. They look under every rock, and they use disinformation and counterintelligence operations like any business worth billions of dollars would on their primary investment and product.

Somewhere there are PR agents working for the Commanders and other teams, trying to prime the pump for reporters, feeding them scraps of negative information, hoping to goad that reporter into doing something that will make that reporter money by writing negative pieces on Caleb. It's not that hard of a sell.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Any negative piece on Caleb has the effect of getting lots of clicks AND you can imagine there are some other teams wanting to muddy the waters on Caleb hoping to maybe shake him free from Chicago

IE: Jalen Carter last year.  I don’t have any issue with Poles making the right choice, I trust him.  I may not agree with him in the end but I like the product he’s brought us so far.  FWIW I was glad he opted for Wright instead of Carter. That was a smart move.  

[BearFan PHX]

21 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

IE: Jalen Carter last year.  I don’t have any issue with Poles making the right choice, I trust him.  I may not agree with him in the end but I like the product he’s brought us so far.  FWIW I was glad he opted for Wright instead of Carter. That was a smart move.  

right - the Eagles may have wanted Carter and helped stoke the character issue fire, but that doesnt mean that Poles got duped either. I agree he made the right decision.

[Pixote]

Yes, I'm sure some are smoke screens set off by other GMs.

Some is old news, such as his not wanting to be drafted by the Bears. A statement which he denies and no one has proven to be true. That one truly smells fishy.

So, what did I find in this article that alarmed me?

I knew college football players were now allowed to earn money from endorsements. I had heard that Caleb had quite a few in a major market. I didn't realize, and I believe this to be true, that he has made in the area of 10 million over the past three years. He doesn't have to drive around in the broken-down car Mitch was said to be driving around before being drafted.

Couple that with the quote from Caleb's father stating that if things didn't work out (if they felt the situation was unacceptable), Caleb could refuse to play for the team that drafted him, sit out a year (return to college, and continue to make plenty of money), and reenter the draft next year (When the QB class appears to be much weaker).

Now, some might say a player would never do that. You must be very young. 

Eli Manning was drafted by San Diego and refused to play for them, then was traded to NYG. I'm sure many fans of the Chargers hold a grudge against Eli.

I myself was a young man when the Colts drafted John Elway (I grew up on the Eastern Shore, a huge Colts fan). Elway refused to play for the Colts, forcing a trade. Now, the Colts received a rookie LOT with a HOF career. Unfortunately, after Johnny Unitas retired, the Colts needed a franchise QB.

To this day, I get pissed off every time I see Elway.

With Caleb's father being so controversial, are we sure he won't encourage Caleb to sit out training camp, refusing to sign unless he gets everything he wants for his boy? If the team is unwilling or unable because of rules set by the NFL & NFLPA, to meet Carl's demands for Caleb, will Carl try to talk Caleb to sit out a year? 

I flat out do not know the answer to those questions. Do You?

 

[adam]

4 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Stealing this from Xwitter.  I think someone like Adam could refute it.  As a numbers simpleton such as myself I’m intrigued.  

So yes, for that combination, no player has ever had that many rushing yards with 3500 passing yards. However, that is sort of moving the sliders. Cunningham had 3466/942 (in 16 games). 

Josh Allen had 4,407 passing yards and 763 rushing yards in 2021 (Total: 5,170 yards) and then had 4,283 passing yards and 762 rushing yards (5,045 total) in 2022. 

For Fields, that would've been 4,400 total in 17 games. 

Kyler had 3971/819 (4,790) in 16 games in 2020. 

So if you value the yards evenly, you add them together. At the end of the day, it is 4,400 yards in 17 or 259 total yards a game. 

Just to put that total into perspective another way, Jordan Love had 4,406 yards this season (4,159 passing, 247 rushing). 

[adam]

4 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I think if you draft a QB in later rounds, like McCarthy or Nix, they sit while Justin starts.  Or rather they compete in training camp for the spot.  (Oops my bias once again appears.  🙊).  That’s assuming you’ll have traded the #1 for capital. 
 

As far as the “red flags” being raised on Williams the closer we get to draft day? Hell yes I’m concerned. 

I can't really see a universe where Fields plays lame duck QB. Either he is the guy or is not the guy. He is too young to be playing the Alex Smith role. 

The only scenarios I see is:

1. All in on Justin (trade down, load up on talent and run it back with Justin for 2024 with another get out of jail free card in 2025 draft by gaining an additional 1st rounder for the trade down).

2. All in on Williams (selected #1, Fields traded, load up on offense)

3. All in on other rookie QB (selected #2 or later in the 1st, Fields traded, load up on offense).

I don't think they can afford to draft a QB and not use that draft pick (unless it is a 5th rounder or later). Every other pick needs to contribute and improve the roster. A 3rd string QB doesn't do that.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

Yes, I'm sure some are smoke screens set off by other GMs.

Some is old news, such as his not wanting to be drafted by the Bears. A statement which he denies and no one has proven to be true. That one truly smells fishy.

So, what did I find in this article that alarmed me?

I knew college football players were now allowed to earn money from endorsements. I had heard that Caleb had quite a few in a major market. I didn't realize, and I believe this to be true, that he has made in the area of 10 million over the past three years. He doesn't have to drive around in the broken-down car Mitch was said to be driving around before being drafted.

Couple that with the quote from Caleb's father stating that if things didn't work out (if they felt the situation was unacceptable), Caleb could refuse to play for the team that drafted him, sit out a year (return to college, and continue to make plenty of money), and reenter the draft next year (When the QB class appears to be much weaker).

Now, some might say a player would never do that. You must be very young. 

Eli Manning was drafted by San Diego and refused to play for them, then was traded to NYG. I'm sure many fans of the Chargers hold a grudge against Eli.

I myself was a young man when the Colts drafted John Elway (I grew up on the Eastern Shore, a huge Colts fan). Elway refused to play for the Colts, forcing a trade. Now, the Colts received a rookie LOT with a HOF career. Unfortunately, after Johnny Unitas retired, the Colts needed a franchise QB.

To this day, I get pissed off every time I see Elway.

With Caleb's father being so controversial, are we sure he won't encourage Caleb to sit out training camp, refusing to sign unless he gets everything he wants for his boy? If the team is unwilling or unable because of rules set by the NFL & NFLPA, to meet Carl's demands for Caleb, will Carl try to talk Caleb to sit out a year? 

I flat out do not know the answer to those questions. Do You?

 

In both of those cases, Manning and Elway were overt about not wanting to be drafted by that team, and Caleb isnt saying that in interviews, and is showing a lot of love toward Chicago pizza etc - its dumb stuff, but not the actions of someone who doesnt want to be drafted by the Bears.

BUT there is a scenario I can imagine where Caleb doesn't want to be hated the way you dislike Elway, and still wants to do avoid Chicago quietly behind the scenes. Im not saying this is happening, but just to play out the scenario...

If Caleb doesnt want to be a Bear, and doesnt want that to be known publicly, then someone tells Poles through intermediaries that this is the case. Poles then takes a different QB or trades down, saying he preferred Maye or Daniels anyway, possibly gets a huge haul of picks, and no one is the wiser.

I imagine that if Poles hears this from Caleb he wouldnt want to go public with it either, because it makes it look like he cant land the guy he wants. So it would all be secret.

But it still wouldnt end with us drafting Caleb and then Caleb holding out. It would end with taking a different player #1 or trading out of #1, and we'd never find out the truth of why it happened.

Rookie deals are set in stone too, so theres no contract reason for Caleb to hold out either.

So I think if we draft him, he will play for us.

[BearFan PHX]

58 minutes ago, adam said:

I can't really see a universe where Fields plays lame duck QB. Either he is the guy or is not the guy. He is too young to be playing the Alex Smith role. 

The only scenarios I see is:

1. All in on Justin (trade down, load up on talent and run it back with Justin for 2024 with another get out of jail free card in 2025 draft by gaining an additional 1st rounder for the trade down).

2. All in on Williams (selected #1, Fields traded, load up on offense)

3. All in on other rookie QB (selected #2 or later in the 1st, Fields traded, load up on offense).

I don't think they can afford to draft a QB and not use that draft pick (unless it is a 5th rounder or later). Every other pick needs to contribute and improve the roster. A 3rd string QB doesn't do that.

I agree entirely. Drafting a QB in late rounds is not gonna fill a hole at starting QB without some incredible luck of the sort that you cant possibly count on.

[Pixote]

2 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

In both of those cases, Manning and Elway were overt about not wanting to be drafted by that team, and Caleb isnt saying that in interviews, and is showing a lot of love toward Chicago pizza etc - its dumb stuff, but not the actions of someone who doesnt want to be drafted by the Bears.

BUT there is a scenario I can imagine where Caleb doesn't want to be hated the way you dislike Elway, and still wants to do avoid Chicago quietly behind the scenes. Im not saying this is happening, but just to play out the scenario...

If Caleb doesnt want to be a Bear, and doesnt want that to be known publicly, then someone tells Poles through intermediaries that this is the case. Poles then takes a different QB or trades down, saying he preferred Maye or Daniels anyway, possibly gets a huge haul of picks, and no one is the wiser.

I imagine that if Poles hears this from Caleb he wouldnt want to go public with it either, because it makes it look like he cant land the guy he wants. So it would all be secret.

But it still wouldnt end with us drafting Caleb and then Caleb holding out. It would end with taking a different player #1 or trading out of #1, and we'd never find out the truth of why it happened.

Rookie deals are set in stone too, so theres no contract reason for Caleb to hold out either.

So I think if we draft him, he will play for us.

I hope you're right. However, there are holdouts every year, some of them high draft picks, even with the slotted salary structure in place.

Remember when Curtis Enis cried like a baby when drafted by the Bears in the first round, held out during training camp, and not signed until the last minute?

If we draft Williams and his "Daddy" tells him to hold out because he wants to try to find a way to side-step the rules set forth by the NFLPA, that would suck big time.

[BearFan PHX]

13 minutes ago, Pixote said:

I hope you're right. However, there are holdouts every year, some of them high draft picks, even with the slotted salary structure in place.

Remember when Curtis Enis cried like a baby when drafted by the Bears in the first round, held out during training camp, and not signed until the last minute?

If we draft Williams and his "Daddy" tells him to hold out because he wants to try to find a way to side-step the rules set forth by the NFLPA, that would suck big time.

I'm pretty sure the slotted contract system started in 2011, and Enis was drafted before that?

The only rookie holdout I can recall since then was over contract clauses related to off the field bad behavior affecting the $. I think that issue has now been settled one way or the other and standardized.

I cant recall a rookie holdout since 2011 when the rookie slotted deals started. i think the rules are such that the Bears have literally no choice in what to pay Williams, they cant change it, so I'm not sure why he'd hold out?

I cant say whether Williams wants to play in Chicago, but if he doesnt, Poles has to know that. And since it's not being said publicly, it's extremely unlikely I think that he doesnt want to go to Chicago, and if hes saying that privately then its even more unlikely that we draft him anyway and he holds out?

There are lots of things to worry about with any high pick, but i dont thinka  holdout is really one of them?

Caleb's dad seems like an idiot. Kind of a Venus and Serena Williams' dad thing. he will cause trouble again Im sure, but i dont think it will affect Caleb and the Bears, but just be silliness in the press.

Pat Mahomes is having some sort of trouble in the press with having family members try to extort him for money or something, and we'd still take him all day

[Daventry]

27 minutes ago, Pixote said:

I hope you're right. However, there are holdouts every year, some of them high draft picks, even with the slotted salary structure in place.

Remember when Curtis Enis cried like a baby when drafted by the Bears in the first round, held out during training camp, and not signed until the last minute?

If we draft Williams and his "Daddy" tells him to hold out because he wants to try to find a way to side-step the rules set forth by the NFLPA, that would suck big time.

I think you are thinking of Cedric Benson, but I follow your logic.

[Pixote]

13 minutes ago, Daventry said:

I think you are thinking of Cedric Benson, but I follow your logic.

Yep, you're right. My mistake.

[Stinger226]

Caleb is going to go around and play up to any team he thinks might draft him. Lots of things that might have been rumors really doesn't matter but a few things are simply fact. Him not doing medical at the combine is not a rumor. His dad being quoted he thinks the limited rookie pay scale is unfair. Him not getting an agent. Him being born  and playing in DC, former home. Grew up a Redskins fan. Him not throwing at the combine. If you look at Commanders media, he spoke differently about Washington than things he said to other teams. He loves Kingsbury. 

He gives the overall impression, he wants to be treated differently and that brings red flags. Even though there's a rookie contract structure, he will be one of the last to sign in the league because he thinks he has more worth than anyone else.

[Pixote]

36 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I'm pretty sure the slotted contract system started in 2011, and Enis was drafted before that?

 

There are holdouts every year going into training camp. How long do they hold out? Does it affect their production in year one? 

The two reasons for these holdouts are normally, and I quote from an article I found"

Quote

As CBS Sports’ Joel Corry recently outlined, unsigned rookies chosen early in the first round are likely concerned with two contractual issues. First, the players at the top of the draft — like Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud — probably want their signing bonuses paid in lump sums. Each of the last four No. 1 overall selections received lump sum payments.

Second, first-round selections could be fighting their teams on offset language, which allows clubs to recoup cash in the event the player is eventually released and signs elsewhere. The Jaguars didn’t require either of their last two No. 1 overall picks — Travon Walker and Trevor Lawrence — to include offset clauses in their contracts, but most NFL teams do.

My concern is that if Caleb's father is as demanding as it has been reported, he may yet try to buck the system and screw things up by "unwisely" advising Caleb to hold out until his demands are met, reasonable or not.

As an example, here is the list I found of rookies in 2023 who held out, not signing their contracts until after the start of training camp. I hope this is accurate, as it is a copy and paste of an article I found on profootballnetwork.com

(It does state some of these players, although unsigned as training camps opened, many have signed when reporting.)

Round 1

No. 1: Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
No. 2: C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
No. 4: Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
No. 5: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Seattle Seahawks
No. 15: Will McDonald IV, EDGE, New York Jets
No. 16: Christian Gonzalez, CB, New England Patriots

Round 2

No. 32: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Pittsburgh Steelers
No. 33: Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
No. 40: Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, New Orleans Saints
No. 41: B.J. Ojulari, EDGE, Arizona Cardinals
No. 42: Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers
No. 43: Joe Tippmann, C, New York Jets
No. 44: Julius Brents, CB, Indianapolis Colts
No. 45: Brian Branch, S, Detroit Lions
No. 46: Keion White, EDGE, New England Patriots
No. 47: Jartavius Martin, CB, Washington Commanders
No. 48: Cody Mauch, G, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No. 50: Cam Smith, CB, Miami Dolphins
No. 52: Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Round 4

No. 108: Blake Freeland, OL, Indianapolis Colts

 

[Daventry]

29 minutes ago, Pixote said:

Yep, you're right. My mistake.

I always felt like he got the shaft from the team, although he was a prima donna.  There were some real jock type bullies on that team, Urlacher and Kreutz included.  Great players but questionable human beings in my view.  I better be careful though, making negative comments about Urlacher got me banned years ago, lol

[BearFan PHX]

13 minutes ago, Pixote said:

There are holdouts every year going into training camp. How long do they hold out? Does it affect their production in year one? 

The two reasons for these holdouts are normally, and I quote from an article I found"

My concern is that if Caleb's father is as demanding as it has been reported, he may yet try to buck the system and screw things up by "unwisely" advising Caleb to hold out until his demands are met, reasonable or not.

As an example, here is the list I found of rookies in 2023 who held out, not signing their contracts until after the start of training camp. I hope this is accurate, as it is a copy and paste of an article I found on profootballnetwork.com

(It does state some of these players, although unsigned as training camps opened, many have signed when reporting.)

Round 1

No. 1: Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
No. 2: C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
No. 4: Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
No. 5: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Seattle Seahawks
No. 15: Will McDonald IV, EDGE, New York Jets
No. 16: Christian Gonzalez, CB, New England Patriots

Round 2

No. 32: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Pittsburgh Steelers
No. 33: Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
No. 40: Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, New Orleans Saints
No. 41: B.J. Ojulari, EDGE, Arizona Cardinals
No. 42: Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers
No. 43: Joe Tippmann, C, New York Jets
No. 44: Julius Brents, CB, Indianapolis Colts
No. 45: Brian Branch, S, Detroit Lions
No. 46: Keion White, EDGE, New England Patriots
No. 47: Jartavius Martin, CB, Washington Commanders
No. 48: Cody Mauch, G, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No. 50: Cam Smith, CB, Miami Dolphins
No. 52: Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Round 4

No. 108: Blake Freeland, OL, Indianapolis Colts

 

Good post! A lot of information in there, thank you.

Yeah I agree all that's left to fight over is offset language and lump sum payments of guaranteed money.

Since the last 4 #1 picks all got it as a lump sum, if the Bears didnt give that to Williams, I'd pretty much blame them and not Williams for that, so that leaves offset language.

I cant imagine that's going to be a real sticking point. And while the Bears may have a point in that one, the ball is in their court too, so theyd be a 50/50 participant in any trouble over that issue too.

In other words, the Bears can give on both of those points without damaging themselves too much or at all. So they can control and avoid those scenarios?

Also as you said, i doubt all those guys were holdouts, they just werent signed quickly. But i dont know how many of them were I totally admit.

Now if you wanna talk about franchise tagging in year 6, then I totally think Williams could be difficult about that, as far away as that is for now.

One thing I always liked about Brady was that he routinely took about $10M less per year than he was worth, and that gave his team money to keep weapons around him. If Williams really does want greatness, he might think like that too in the future. And when you win a lot of superbowls, you recoup that $10M in endorsements anyway.

But if Poles drafts Williams, Im not worried at all that he will hold out. I do think his dad will keep saying stupid stuff, but i dont think it will really matter?

 

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Good post! A lot of information in there, thank you.

Yeah I agree all that's left to fight over is offset language and lump sum payments of guaranteed money.

Since the last 4 #1 picks all got it as a lump sum, if the Bears didnt give that to Williams, I'd pretty much blame them and not Williams for that, so that leaves offset language.

I cant imagine that's going to be a real sticking point. And while the Bears may have a point in that one, the ball is in their court too, so theyd be a 50/50 participant in any trouble over that issue too.

In other words, the Bears can give on both of those points without damaging themselves too much or at all. So they can control and avoid those scenarios?

Also as you said, i doubt all those guys were holdouts, they just werent signed quickly. But i dont know how many of them were I totally admit.

Now if you wanna talk about franchise tagging in year 6, then I totally think Williams could be difficult about that, as far away as that is for now.

One thing I always liked about Brady was that he routinely took about $10M less per year than he was worth, and that gave his team money to keep weapons around him. If Williams really does want greatness, he might think like that too in the future. And when you win a lot of superbowls, you recoup that $10M in endorsements anyway.

But if Poles drafts Williams, Im not worried at all that he will hold out. I do think his dad will keep saying stupid stuff, but i dont think it will really matter?

 

If Poles drafts him, he will already have everything figured out. He won't draft him if he becomes a problem but he will know going in.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

4 hours ago, Pixote said:

Yep, you're right. My mistake.

Enis also was a long hold out though. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I think I am leaning to drafting Turner at 9 , signing Mike Evans, and drafting another wideout in 3rd round. Use pick you get for Fields on oline and another pick on safety. 
 

I would be open to signing one of the running backs to a deal to help Caleb. Barkley or Ekler (banged up but so good as a receiver). 

I presume they can get Evans for big money but without a ton of years and even after taking Turner they should have cap space for a free agent oline or dlinemen plus maybe grab a safety? 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

9 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think I am leaning to drafting Turner at 9 , signing Mike Evans, and drafting another wideout in 3rd round. Use pick you get for Fields on oline and another pick on safety. 
 

I would be open to signing one of the running backs to a deal to help Caleb. Barkley or Ekler (banged up but so good as a receiver). 

I presume they can get Evans for big money but without a ton of years and even after taking Turner they should have cap space for a free agent oline or dlinemen plus maybe grab a safety? 

The safety FA market is strong, so I do not see the Bears drafting that position high. I feel they should draft a good young WR prospect to balance the spending as well as a DE.  Since WR seems deeper in the draft, they might go DE at 9 but realistically need a 2nd to get that WR.  If Poles feels Caleb is not a good fit for the culture and sees Maye as about as good, maybe he can gain some draft capital by trading WAS. Round 3 has to go Center and there is a good chance either Frazier or Van Pran are there.

[adam]

All the measureables in this thread. Williams over 6'1", hands over 9.6 (median hand size). So he checks all the boxes. McCarthy has Pickett's hands, which is somewhat concerning.

Daniels and Nabers both skipped the measurements. 

[BearFan PHX]

26 minutes ago, adam said:

All the measureables in this thread. Williams over 6'1", hands over 9.6 (median hand size). So he checks all the boxes. McCarthy has Pickett's hands, which is somewhat concerning.

Daniels and Nabers both skipped the measurements. 

thank you!

[adam]

52 minutes ago, adam said:

All the measureables in this thread. Williams over 6'1", hands over 9.6 (median hand size). So he checks all the boxes. McCarthy has Pickett's hands, which is somewhat concerning.

Daniels and Nabers both skipped the measurements. 

Fields an inch taller, Williams has a bigger hand 9.75>9.16. I didn't realize Fields hand was that small.

Comparing NFL.com Combine and NextGen scores: Fields Total Score: 89, Williams: 96.  Williams and Bowers tied for the highest NextGenStats score with a 96. Lawrence had a 91, Burrow had a 90. Mahomes had an 88 and Trubisky had an 84. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

18 hours ago, adam said:

I can't really see a universe where Fields plays lame duck QB. Either he is the guy or is not the guy. He is too young to be playing the Alex Smith role. 

Neither do I.  Don’t really see them set at Bagent being their primary backup either. Perhaps a veteran QB would be a good backup but Waldron already made it clear his offense would work for either rookie or veteran. I’d be curious to see what the Redskins’ strategy was behind drafting RG3 with the first pick then Cousins in the 4th round of the same year.   Obviously now we know of the two, Cousins’ career has been more than just as a career backup.  
 

What's to say the Bears don’t look for a decent backup in this years’ crop of QBs and eventually, if the need arises, trade either that player, if Fields works out or vice versa?  And before I’m convinced no one will trade for Justin why then are there ‘so many teams’ lining up to trade for him now and why are we hoping to get at the very least a high 2nd round pick for him?