Yet another Caleb Williams Red Flag

[Alaskan Grizzly]

45 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

illogical

So what…you’re Spock now?  Illogical and irrefutable are not the same you know.  😉👍

[Mongo3451]

8 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So what…you’re Spock now?  Illogical and irrefutable are not the same you know.  😉👍

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

To be fair stats are confusing and not just common sense sometimes. But when someone explains it, hopefully if you understand them, then you come off the argument instead of doubling down

Surely you’ve heard the famous quote: “There are three types of lies.  Lies, damn lies and statistics.”  Essentially statistics taken in their raw form provide raw data. How you perceive or use them can be twisted however you see fit and help illustrate a narrative.  To suggest stats in their raw form are “confusing” would be wrong.  But to use the stats in your own analytics is where things can get tricky.

 

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

But in the end, you gotta ask yourself, why would teams not take the best (most likely to succeed) option at #1? They wouldnt. So the professionals make the best bets they can. And like any gambler, you lose and you win, but losing a bet doesnt mean it wasnt a good bet, and winning a bet doesnt mean it was a smart bet either. And all you know when you make the bet is the odds of winning, not what the singular outcome will be.

 Quick question.  Do you think Carolina choosing Bryce Young was a “good bet”?  How about if you weigh it against them passing on Stroud and seeing how well he did?  Same question about former #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence?  He himself three years in and led the league in INTs (his rookie year) and fumbles lost the last two.  Does the scale tip to him being a “good bet” if you look at the recent addition of Mac Jones to the team? Who by the way has very similar stats overall, especially passing.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

9 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

We don’t have goats here in Alaska.  Least not those type. 

[BearFan PHX]

4 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Surely you’ve heard the famous quote: “There are three types of lies.  Lies, damn lies and statistics.”  Essentially statistics taken in their raw form provide raw data. How you perceive or use them can be twisted however you see fit and help illustrate a narrative.  To suggest stats in their raw form are “confusing” would be wrong.  But to use the stats in your own analytics is where things can get tricky.

 

 Quick question.  Do you think Carolina choosing Bryce Young was a “good bet”?  How about if you weigh it against them passing on Stroud and seeing how well he did?  Same question about former #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence?  He himself three years in and led the league in INTs (his rookie year) and fumbles lost the last two.  Does the scale tip to him being a “good bet” if you look at the recent addition of Mac Jones to the team? Who by the way has very similar stats overall, especially passing.  

the thing is youve used the raw statistics improperly becazuse you only proved that every non #1 QB together, one of them would win a SB more often, but you dont get to draft them ALL, you gotta pick one, and thats where the #1 pick is a better bet than any individual lower pick QB.

again, a coin flip is a better bet than having to roll a six on a dice.

And yet if you did both once, 1 out of 12 times, youd lose the coin flip but win the dice roll. that doesnt mean that half the time you wouldnt win the coin flip and only win the dice one out of six times.

I didnt have an opinion on Stroud vs Young. I wasnt scouting QBs that year.

But a single outcome doesnt mean the odds arent still what they are.

And the goat is hilarious by the way!

[Mongo3451]

6 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I didnt have an opinion on Stroud vs Young. I wasnt scouting QBs that year.

I got that one right, on record, right here!

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I read here 25 superbowls and only 2 were won by #1 pick QB. So youre saying a #1 pick QB has a 2/25 chance of winning a superbowl? thats 8%. Fine.

You’re confusing two points. One about players selected #1 and having won a Heisman and won (and played in) a Super Bowl.  That was two.  The other conversation highlighted that ‘in the last 26 Super Bowls’ 4 QBs selected overall have won it.  2 of them twice (the Mannings) so six SBs.

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Now were talking about 25 drafts here. lets say an average of 7 non #1 pick QBs per draft. That's 7 x 25 = 175 QBs.
And we know there were 23 superbowl wins in that time for them.

So youre gonna say 23/175 = 13% chance to win.

Nope.  Again you’re not comprehending the read.  Simply put of the 26 Super Bowls played from 1999-2024, 6 games were won by QBs who were chosen #1 overall.  The rest were not. But of those 20 games some were repeats, like Brady (6), Roethlisberger (2) and Mahomes (3).  Still none of them were selected #1 overall .

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

You’re confusing two points. One about players selected #1 and having won a Heisman and won (and played in) a Super Bowl.  That was two.  The other conversation highlighted that ‘in the last 26 Super Bowls’ 4 QBs selected overall have won it.  2 of them twice (the Mannings) so six SBs.

Nope.  Again you’re not comprehending the read.  Simply put of the 26 Super Bowls played from 1999-2024, 6 games were won by QBs who were chosen #1 overall.  The rest were not. But of those 20 games some were repeats, like Brady (6), Roethlisberger (2) and Mahomes (3).  Still none of them were selected #1 overall .

so if you think you are proving youre better off not picking a QB #1 then you have to factor in all the QBs that werent selected #1 who DIDNT win superbowls. No one knows its Brady and waits until the 6th round for him, and you can pick 6th round QBs every year for the next 10 years and not get another Brady.

So no one is saying picking someone #1 makes them a superbowl winner, but a higher percentage of #1 pick overall QBs win superbowls than any other place in the draft.

[Stinger226]

16 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

so if you think you are proving youre better off not picking a QB #1 then you have to factor in all the QBs that werent selected #1 who DIDNT win superbowls. No one knows its Brady and waits until the 6th round for him, and you can pick 6th round QBs every year for the next 10 years and not get another Brady.

So no one is saying picking someone #1 makes them a superbowl winner, but a higher percentage of #1 pick overall QBs win superbowls than any other place in the draft.

You're right about probable outcome but we don't know what Poles thinks of Caleb. He won't do the deep dive until his 30 visit., Then I think things will be more clear. He may like another QB. 

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

You're right about probable outcome but we don't know what Poles thinks of Caleb.

true

6 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

He won't do the deep dive until his 30 visit., Then I think things will be more clear.

I think he probably knows what he thinks already, and is just doing his due diligence. Of course if bad stuff pops up, it can always change things. But assuming it doesnt, they probably know what theyre doing already.
 

11 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

He may like another QB. 

true, but I think Williams is the obvious choice, not predicting Poles but from what I've seen on film.

[Stinger226]

41 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

true

I think he probably knows what he thinks already, and is just doing his due diligence. Of course if bad stuff pops up, it can always change things. But assuming it doesnt, they probably know what theyre doing already.
 

true, but I think Williams is the obvious choice, not predicting Poles but from what I've seen on film.

Poles already has an opinion on him, of course but the deep dive is when unexpected things pop up. That's why they do it.  

If he clears his character issues, I think he drafts him too. Just don't think it's final yet.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Poles already has an opinion on him, of course but the deep dive is when unexpected things pop up. That's why they do it.  

If he clears his character issues, I think he drafts him too. Just don't think it's final yet.

and if I said i thought it was pretty much already decided but if they are surprised by something bad then it could change, thatd pretty much be the same thing?

[Stinger226]

9 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

and if I said i thought it was pretty much already decided but if they are surprised by something bad then it could change, thatd pretty much be the same thing?

You think they already have decided but if something comes up, they change their minds. I don't think they have. It's just opinions.

 

 

anteces

[killakrzydav]

Calebs meeting with the Bears is this Saturday the 23rd.

[dawhizz]

On 3/14/2024 at 9:33 PM, jason said:

That’s all fair, but I just don’t think it’s a sure enough bet to go for Williams. He has numerous red flags, his teammates apparently didn’t like him,

Where does your impression that his “teammates apparently didn’t like him” come from? Besides one guy who said “we’re a team now” after the bowl win (which can be taken a number of ways) I haven’t seen one indication that his teammates didn’t like him. Just curious on your source there, I’d like to see what they had to say. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, dawhizz said:

Where does your impression that his “teammates apparently didn’t like him” come from? Besides one guy who said “we’re a team now” after the bowl win (which can be taken a number of ways) I haven’t seen one indication that his teammates didn’t like him. Just curious on your source there, I’d like to see what they had to say. 

There's more misinformation out than the  one true report. Last year Poles met with Carter and we didn't take him. He will dig deep. I trust him to figure it out.

[killakrzydav]

https://heavy.com/sports/chicago-bears/caleb-williams-reaction-keenan-allen-trade/

[Stinger226]

15 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

https://heavy.com/sports/chicago-bears/caleb-williams-reaction-keenan-allen-trade/

Is that a local writer? He doesn't know that Allen is a slot WR when he thinks Tyler Scott is playing there. We have yet add  to add the big X WR of which we will do in the draft.

[adam]

Here is a great podcast from Pat the Designer and Jason McKie talking with Caleb's HS coach. He basically debunks all the "red flags".  Also talks about Olu as they were both on the same team. 

So if anyone needed more info about Caleb and his family, they hit the coach with some pretty straightforward questions. Pat is really good at what he does. I am finding his Podcast with Courtney Cronin to be the most level headed of the bunch.

er

[adam]

If anyone is interested, here are some high school highlight videos of Williams from 16-19. He looked pretty polished for a 16 and 17 year old.

https://www.hudl.com/profile/6269274/Caleb-Williams

Also, something I didn't realize, he missed his entire senior year of high school football to the COVID year. 

So the epic game he won coming in for Rattler his freshman year at OU, Caleb was only 19 years old at the time and really hadn't played in a live game for almost 2 years. 

[AZ54]

The more I see of this kid the more I flat out dislike him as a person.  I simply don't care about his football talent and I'd never hire him.  I find it hard to believe this is the leader Ryan Poles wants at the podium after a tough loss.  So be it.  

Someone criticized me because I don't like him painting his fingernails.  If he wants to be all pretty that's on him but now I find out he was writing F-Utah, and then follows that up with F- ND.  Then he's promoting that across social media.  He's an utterly classless individual.  When asked about the F-ND, he refers to fans as "the sheep" who will never understand what it's like to walk in his shoes.  On that he's correct, I won't walk in his shoes because I'd never want to treat people like that.  

The look on everyone's faces as he completely ignored Keenan Allen and walks right by him was awesome.  Someone had to call him over, likely a PR person for USC.  I refuse to believe that someone with his "vision on the field" couldn't see that bright orange jacket Allen was wearing as soon as he was walking onto the field.  An elite NFL WR took the time to attend your pro day you take the time to find him and thank him.  

I said a week ago I was out on this kid and now I'm even more so.  Give him away to Wash and go draft Maye who also has elite arm talent.  I don't even know about Maye's attitude yet as I've barely done any research on him. 

    

 

[Stinger226]

31 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

The more I see of this kid the more I flat out dislike him as a person.  I simply don't care about his football talent and I'd never hire him.  I find it hard to believe this is the leader Ryan Poles wants at the podium after a tough loss.  So be it.  

Someone criticized me because I don't like him painting his fingernails.  If he wants to be all pretty that's on him but now I find out he was writing F-Utah, and then follows that up with F- ND.  Then he's promoting that across social media.  He's an utterly classless individual.  When asked about the F-ND, he refers to fans as "the sheep" who will never understand what it's like to walk in his shoes.  On that he's correct, I won't walk in his shoes because I'd never want to treat people like that.  

The look on everyone's faces as he completely ignored Keenan Allen and walks right by him was awesome.  Someone had to call him over, likely a PR person for USC.  I refuse to believe that someone with his "vision on the field" couldn't see that bright orange jacket Allen was wearing as soon as he was walking onto the field.  An elite NFL WR took the time to attend your pro day you take the time to find him and thank him.  

I said a week ago I was out on this kid and now I'm even more so.  Give him away to Wash and go draft Maye who also has elite arm talent.  I don't even know about Maye's attitude yet as I've barely done any research on him. 

    

 

There is no denying his talent, but what always bothered me was him wanting to be treated special. Wanting to change the rookie pay structure because he wants more money. The me me me attitude can cause problems. When will he blow up because Waldron didn't call enough pass plays in a game? I still have questions.

[BearFan PHX]

The NFL is a business. If you get injured, they spit you out. If they like someone else, they trade you or cut you. You're a piece of meat to them. That's why there is a collective bargaining agreement, and a union. That's why there are agents.

Does anyone think teams go easy on agents? or that agents go easy on teams? Of course not. These teams are multi billion dollar businesses and everyone is competing for money and wins.

If Caleb thinks he's special, and his price tag shows he's special, then great. No one is making anyone draft him, but they want to, so he should get as much as he can, just as teams should give as little as they can.

And is Caleb special? Yes it seems that he is. It's OK for him to know it, and to reach for the stars.

So Calebs father met with agents to see if they could find a way to get him more highly paid than the slotted salary. They told him there was no way to do that. OK. Same with team ownership. When you have the hot hand in sports or Hollywood, you play it, because tomorrow you can be cast aside. I dont blame them for asking.

I havent heard anything from Caleb about sitting out. I heard Calebs father complain about how the draft order allocates the best players to the worst teams. He said that before we fired Getsy. He said that before we had Keenan Allen. He probably said that before he realized that Chicago had the first pick by trade and not having a 3 win season.

I think those videos are cherry picked, and deceptively edited out of context and time.

I do sense a kind of nervousness or arrogance in Caleb. It's a lot to put on a young man's shoulders. I can feel that

But the dress wearing, the nail painting all that - it's silliness. The guy can play at a really high level or he can't. Surely Williams isn't leaving room for a beloved backup's career if it all goes poorly. He's not going to win the most humble guy in the league award. But so what? He's got no backup plan but greatness. He says he wants to be "immortal" in NFL history. Shouldnt we WANT that?

Jordan was like this too. So was Brady, and even Sweetness. Deion Sanders, Dennis Rodman, Joe Namath, Jim McMahon, Kobe Bryant, Muhammad Ali, Mike Tyson, Ray Lewis - and there are more examples of brash overcompetitive legends.

I agree that if WIlliams doesnt grow into an NFL monster within a few years, this will all age very poorly on him. It's a risk. But it's also evidence of him being highly internally motivated. He is the opposite of Jay Cutler. He is in it to kick EVERYONES ass. He cares! He cried when he couldnt win without a team around him.

I like it, and if he can back it up, then I LOVE it.

Dont you all remember the arrogance of the 85 defense? They released a song called Superbowl shuffle in week 11!

It's just been so long. Dont be afraid of greatness! Dont be afraid of having a player who IS special. And if he makes waves and pulls overly conservative coaches kicking and screaming into superbowl wins, then he's the guy we've been waiting for.

I thought that identity would come with a new head coach like Harbaugh. But it can be the QB. He can lead from that position too.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

52 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

That's why there is a collective bargaining agreement, and a union. That's why there are agents.

Agents, which he doesn’t have.

And speaking of, was going to comment on the physical thing. Within the ~450 pages of the CBA there is probably something that outlines the requirement of members having a baseline physical to ascertain any potential pre-existing conditions.  Like with most unions and/or benefits associated, there is a requirement for life insurance to have that let alone all the other ‘benefits’ these guys would be afforded .   
 

Looking at the 2020 CBA (for example) article 39 and 40 address medical care and providers (to include the clause that all players will submit to a pre-season physical - Art 39.8).  Article 41 even addresses workman’s comp.  So I would think it behooves both parties to participate in these tests.

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Jordan was like this too. So was Brady, and even Sweetness. Deion Sanders, Dennis Rodman, Joe Namath, Jim McMahon, Kobe Bryant, Muhammad Ali, Mike Tyson, Ray Lewis - and there are more examples of brash overcompetitive legends.

And Johnny Manziel and Brian Bosworth. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

The more I see of this kid the more I flat out dislike him as a person.  I simply don't care about his football talent and I'd never hire him.

Yeah I’m having a hard time buying into his antics, contrived or no.  There’s some underlying ‘thing’ that just doesn’t give me comfort in knowing he’d be the best for us. Never mind I’m still not believing this “generational talent”.  He’s good but not generationally better than others already playing or even some of his collegiate peers.