Bears trade for Keenan Allen WR

[Alaskan Grizzly]

6 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

This is not a guy running a 4.7 forty.  He's not a 4.4 forty either but there are plenty of flashes where DBs aren't catching him. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUFUNDOaGhk

 

Good video.  I was just going to comment on his speed. Couldn't imagine he'd be top end anymore. But somehow he manages to consistently get open.  I couldn't help but notice he got behind Pro Bowler Jaylon Johnson in one of his receptions 😏   So now the question will be, is Moore or Allen the #1 receiver?  Regardless having Allen on the team will definitely help open up Moore a bit MORE often.  And if they draft one of the top 3 WRs...oh man!  

To think he's been in the league since 2013 and playing for SD/LA that whole time is pretty incredible.  Because I was curious I wanted to see who else was drafted the same year as he and the list includes; OT Eric Fisher (#1 overall), Barkevious Mingo (#6 overall), DJ Fluker (OT #11 overall), DeAndre Hopkins (#27 overall), Cordarelle Patterson (#29 overall), Alec Olgetree (#30 overall) and Kyle Long (OG #20 overall).  

[AZ54]

This trade is pretty surprising and offers more draft intrigue as I'm reading comments across the web.   One guy brought up a great point that this trade and Mike Williams being cut almost certainly means the Chargers are drafting a WR at #5.    What is likely to go down in the draft is QB, QB, QB, WR (AZ), WR (LAC), and then WR (NYG).  

Of course all the Caleb fans are ecstatic because Poles brought in elite WR talent for your rookie QB to succeed, along with Swift as a receiving threat, and another good TE.  Add another piece to the Oline and we're ready.    That cuts both ways if we keep Fields.  

Regardless, what Poles had to consider when Allen hit the market is 1) someone will make that trade and 2) how the draft will then play out.  If Poles wants QB at #1 or maybe #2 then the trade fits need, no biggie.   

Alternatively if you have a very strong offer on the table to trade back outside the top 10, and you're ok with keeping Fields, then now you know for sure you won't get one of the top 3 WRs even at #9.  Any WR we get outside the top 10 will be more of a role player in his rookie year.   The trade for Allen mitigates that risk.  A big trade back could net you additional 1st Rd picks in 2025 and 2026 (plus more) which then mitigates your QB risk with Fields.   Considering their division neither team is likely to be drafting outside the top 20 in the next 2 years so the value forecast on their 1st Rd picks is pretty good.  Having Allen should 100% tell you if Fields is your guy before the 2025 draft.  

I can't see him trading with Minn.  Ideally if you make this kind of a trade you go outside your conference.  This leaves us with the Broncos #12 and Raiders #13 who are staring at solving the Patrick Mahomes problem for another decade, and now Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert to the south in LA.  How do you give yourself a fighting chance?  You go get the next "Patrick Mahomes".   

Our draft could then look like:  #9 DE (best value/talent),   #12. Jackson Power Johnson.  He's trending toward mid-1st now., this is a bit of a reach but if he's your guy you take him.    Denver has no 2nd Rd pick and I can't even find a player we'd want off their roster that would fit within our cap.   Then consider Las Vegas?     That's a big stretch but they got a very expensive stadium with seats to fill and bills to pay.  A losing team for the next 5 years with empty seats is not a good option although maybe the owner doesn't care.  Plus Vegas itself is a destination city so it's easy to fill seats with visitor's fans.  

Sometimes its Occams Razor and all this just means we're taking a QB at #1 or #2 if we trade back with Wash.  

 

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

11 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

This trade is pretty surprising and offers more draft intrigue as I'm reading comments across the web.   One guy brought up a great point that this trade and Mike Williams being cut almost certainly means the Chargers are drafting a WR at #5.    What is likely to go down in the draft is QB, QB, QB, WR (AZ), WR (LAC), and then WR (NYG).  

Of course all the Caleb fans are ecstatic because Poles brought in elite WR talent for your rookie QB to succeed, along with Swift as a receiving threat, and another good TE.  Add another piece to the Oline and we're ready.    That cuts both ways if we keep Fields.  

Regardless, what Poles had to consider when Allen hit the market is 1) someone will make that trade and 2) how the draft will then play out.  If Poles wants QB at #1 or maybe #2 then the trade fits need, no biggie.   

Alternatively if you have a very strong offer on the table to trade back outside the top 10, and you're ok with keeping Fields, then now you know for sure you won't get one of the top 3 WRs even at #9.  Any WR we get outside the top 10 will be more of a role player in his rookie year.   The trade for Allen mitigates that risk.  A big trade back could net you additional 1st Rd picks in 2025 and 2026 (plus more) which then mitigates your QB risk with Fields.   Considering their division neither team is likely to be drafting outside the top 20 in the next 2 years so the value forecast on their 1st Rd picks is pretty good.  Having Allen should 100% tell you if Fields is your guy before the 2025 draft.  

I can't see him trading with Minn.  Ideally if you make this kind of a trade you go outside your conference.  This leaves us with the Broncos #12 and Raiders #13 who are staring at solving the Patrick Mahomes problem for another decade, and now Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert to the south in LA.  How do you give yourself a fighting chance?  You go get the next "Patrick Mahomes".   

Our draft could then look like:  #9 DE (best value/talent),   #12. Jackson Power Johnson.  He's trending toward mid-1st now., this is a bit of a reach but if he's your guy you take him.    Denver has no 2nd Rd pick and I can't even find a player we'd want off their roster that would fit within our cap.   Then consider Las Vegas?     That's a big stretch but they got a very expensive stadium with seats to fill and bills to pay.  A losing team for the next 5 years with empty seats is not a good option although maybe the owner doesn't care.  Plus Vegas itself is a destination city so it's easy to fill seats with visitor's fans.  

Sometimes its Occams Razor and all this just means we're taking a QB at #1 or #2 if we trade back with Wash.  

 

 

 

Im sure Poles has a pretty clear idea of what he thinks will happen, but its always good when both scenarios support the same move - youre covered either way. I agree with your analysis.

[adam]

This feels like a now move, and his contract lines up more with Fields than Williams.

It's a free pick so this is low risk to me. 

Allen was a WR1 but is a WR2 now. They will draft one early and have a high end top 3.

The Bears now have the #9 and #11 WRs according to PFF, 2nd best duo to Hill and Waddle. 

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

This feels like a now move, and his contract lines up more with Fields than Williams.

It's a free pick so this is low risk to me. 

Allen was a WR1 but is a WR2 now. They will draft one early and have a high end top 3.

The Bears now have the #9 and #11 WRs according to PFF, 2nd best duo to Hill and Waddle. 

He clearly is in win now mode. The window appears to be 24-25 to get to a SB. What's next? I think trading the first pick is it play. Not saying we won't draft a QB , I  think he picks up some picks and gets a different QB.

We need a Edge-DT-WR3 and more OL depth. Another TE seems likely. With 4 picks. The free agents are starting to scale down. He's trading back a few times. I think the second round is his sweet spot. Need more. I would say we could have gotten one with a Justin trade but the media has killed that thought. Next week is coming soon. 

 

[killakrzydav]

The Allen move accompanied with Washington stockpiling picks screams JF is staying. Flipping one for two and their 6 top 100 picks would be great

[killakrzydav]

I’d trade 1-2 then 2-3 sacrificing cw and jd. Maye is a bust. Snag MHJ at 3 and Turner at 9. 

[Stinger226]

6 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

I’d trade 1-2 then 2-3 sacrificing cw and jd. Maye is a bust. Snag MHJ at 3 and Turner at 9. 

I thinking that will happen.

[dawhizz]

If there’s one thing this offseason proved once and for all, it’s that there is no such thing as a “Bears insider”. With the exception of the Jaylon extension which Poles straight up said he was working on, not a single one of the Bears moves have leaked before it happened. We should all keep that in mind going forward. 

[adam]

4 minutes ago, dawhizz said:

If there’s one thing this offseason proved once and for all, it’s that there is no such thing as a “Bears insider”. With the exception of the Jaylon extension which Poles straight up said he was working on, not a single one of the Bears moves have leaked before it happened. We should all keep that in mind going forward. 

Yep, Greg Gabriel lost Cliff Stein, and it's clear the insiders connections are no longer there or connected to people spilling the beans on social media. 

[killakrzydav]

I like the stitched loop approach. King Poles!!

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Yep, Greg Gabriel lost Cliff Stein, and it's clear the insiders connections are no longer there or connected to people spilling the beans on social media. 

So the narrative that we are taking Williams and trading Justin could be a projection?

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 minute ago, Stinger226 said:

So the narrative that we are taking Williams and trading Justin could be a projection?

D'Andre Swift hasn't heard from Justin Field(s) since he signed.  They were teammates at Georgia and are good friends.  Does that sound like a QB who expects to be here? That sounds like a QB who knows nothing and is staying away until the dust settles. Doesn't mean he isn't back - right now I think it is 50/50 Bears have #1 pick and Justin here cause I don't believe they should just give Field(s) away.  A 4th or 5th rounder for Fields does not justify moving Field(s) in my opinion.

At that point - I'd rather go the strategy of - let the two compete - Field(s) starts all the way up to the trade deadline. At that point - if Bears are winning, they can opt to trade Justin for value and turn it over to Caleb at that point or keep Justin for the rest of the year and maybe make the playoffs and than if that happened, I presume team(s) would have more interest in Field(s).  Caleb isn't going to negatively be impacted by sitting for a year or half of the season and being better prepared for when he goes in (I don't think sitting hurt Rodgers or Love).  

And for those that say - if you keep Field(s) all year he walks. If this team makes the playoffs - at that point - you put a transition or franchise tag on him so you have the proper leverage, knowing that you are going to trade him.  Lets not pretend that Field(s) and Caleb didn't have to earn their starting jobs their whole life.  

Field(s) was at Georgie and didn't win the job and transferred. Caleb was at OU behind Spencer Rattler and won the gig from Spencer and never looked back, than followed Riley to USC. These guys have had to compete their whole live(s) - so just cause they are in the NFL lets not pretend they need to be annoited.  

[Stinger226]

9 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

D'Andre Swift hasn't heard from Justin Field(s) since he signed.  They were teammates at Georgia and are good friends.  Does that sound like a QB who expects to be here? That sounds like a QB who knows nothing and is staying away until the dust settles. Doesn't mean he isn't back - right now I think it is 50/50 Bears have #1 pick and Justin here cause I don't believe they should just give Field(s) away.  A 4th or 5th rounder for Fields does not justify moving Field(s) in my opinion.

At that point - I'd rather go the strategy of - let the two compete - Field(s) starts all the way up to the trade deadline. At that point - if Bears are winning, they can opt to trade Justin for value and turn it over to Caleb at that point or keep Justin for the rest of the year and maybe make the playoffs and than if that happened, I presume team(s) would have more interest in Field(s).  Caleb isn't going to negatively be impacted by sitting for a year or half of the season and being better prepared for when he goes in (I don't think sitting hurt Rodgers or Love).  

And for those that say - if you keep Field(s) all year he walks. If this team makes the playoffs - at that point - you put a transition or franchise tag on him so you have the proper leverage, knowing that you are going to trade him.  Lets not pretend that Field(s) and Caleb didn't have to earn their starting jobs their whole life.  

Field(s) was at Georgie and didn't win the job and transferred. Caleb was at OU behind Spencer Rattler and won the gig from Spencer and never looked back, than followed Riley to USC. These guys have had to compete their whole live(s) - so just cause they are in the NFL lets not pretend they need to be annoited.  

It was only a day , and Justin is on vacation, just may not have connected with him yet.

I think drafting Caleb would only be the prospect that their would be a problem with. Super ego. Anyone else will need some time to develop. So they have him sit for a year and develop. Tell Justin he has a year to prove himself,  the rookie doesn't have any leverage. Best of both worlds. It worked out in KC.

[adam]

Keenan Allen only trails Davante Adams for most receptions since 2017.

Allen and DJ Moore are 2 out of 9 players to have over 400 receptions and 5,000 receiving yards since 2019. The group include Adams, Diggs, Kelce, Hill, Kupp, Godwin, and Lockett. 

Justin Jefferson is widely considered the best WR in the NFL. Since he entered the NFL in 2020, Jefferson has 392 receptions. Since 2020, Keenan Allen has 380. 

[BearFan PHX]

the problem is, Fields doesn't have what it takes to be a winner.

it's not about chances, and timing, situations etc - he has a fatal flaw that was known to all coming out of college. He's had three years to show improvement in that area, and if he has shown any at all, it's been the smallest amount. Not enough.

Other teams dont want him and neither should we.

The morale issues of a QB controversy and all that are only a small part of it - the main thing is - he isn't good at playing QB.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

the problem is, Fields doesn't have what it takes to be a winner.

Ah ah ah ah…please qualify by adding “in the NFL” and add ‘in your opinion’ if you’d like.  😁👍

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Other teams dont want him and neither should we.

We do not know this to be fact.  

[BearFan PHX]

12 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Ah ah ah ah…please qualify by adding “in the NFL” and add ‘in your opinion’ if you’d like.  😁👍

We do not know this to be fact.  

oh absolutely! Fields was great at Ohio State - I didnt mean that - youre right.

And I'm not saying he doesn't have a winning attitude or anything like that either. Hes a "winner" of a person for sure - not like Cutler or Jeff George or something that didnt care. i get the feeling Justin cares a lot. I just mean that with the specific skills he lacks, there is no way to repurpose the admittedly amazing skill set he DOES have into an NFL QB who can win regularly.

He reminds me of Devin Hester as a WR. We all know Hester is one of the best open field runners ever. he was Gale Sayers-like in his ability. But at the same time he lacked other skills in route running that made his athletic skill set not transfer to the NFL in terms of playing a specific position (other than being a hall of fame kick returner)

There are lots of QBs I like personally less than Justin and lots that have a lot less athletic talent too, but as a QB, they might still be better than Justin.

Justin runs int he open field as well as anyone. But now we tell him to slide instead of making a move on defenders. So, great athlete, but doesn't fit into an NFL QB position.

Same with his arm. He has a real gun and can throw a very accurate ball. Better than most! But he doesn't process defenses fast enough to fulfill the demands of the NFL QB position.

A lot of QBs that arent good arent great athletes, or theyre lazy or have attitude problems, weak arms etc. Those guys everyone can see are bad and few defend them.

Justin on the other hand is a hard worker, great attitude, leader, TONS of physical talent from his legs to his arm. He's big, he's tough and when he scrambles he can make big highlight plays. I totally see why people like him. he's not a loser of a person at all. I didnt mean to imply that.

But now that NFL defenses know what he cant do, so they can cheat to deal with what he can do, he's cooked. I say its like playing rock, paper scissors but you cant throw scissors for some reason. You might be the best at rock and pretty good at paper, but if your opponent figures out you dont have any scissors, they throw paper all day and you cant win. That's why i dont think Justin will be winning a lot of games, and what i meant by "not a winner"

To your other point, I think if other teams wanted him, we'd know it. It's a guess, like all football talk, but i think it's a good one. And i don't think we want him either. i suppose we will find out which was the truth soon enough.

[jason]

My opinion on this is, it paints a pretty clear picture that Fields stays as QB.

1. Allen counts for $23M against the cap (correct me if wrong)
2. Guess who's an UFA after 2024?
   • Keenan Allen
   • Teven Jenkins
   • Larry Borom
   • Khari Blasingame
3. Fields has one more year under rookie numbers before a huge payday
4. After the trade the Bears have FOUR PICKS in the 2024 draft, which doesn't fit Poles' message of building through the draft
   • 1.1
   • 1.9
   • 3.75
   • 4.124

Everything above points to a make-or-break year for Fields in 2024, where they'll trade the #1 pick, acquire more than 4 measly picks, load up on talent, likely add starters at OL and WR, then say to Fields, "Time for you to earn your next contract and take us deep into the playoffs."

If Fields fails, then the draft talent is there in 2025 with a year of experience, Keenan Allen's money is off the books, they'll have extra picks from this year's trade, at least the offensive side of the ball is wiped clean, and it'll be time for the inevitably new coaching staff to draft for their future.

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

Well Id say that Poles vision of building through the draft is a long term one, and these hole fillers are short term deals while Poles catches up and can build even more through the draft.

To me it points to taking Williams #1, and making sure that even though you need another year to fully stock through the draft, you dont want to do what we did to Justin and throw a rookie in without weapons and protection. It might even say that ideally youd draft your QB after this year (as you say) but that Williams is a rare opportunity here and now, and so to take him, you need to fill some holes for him.

It also points to having flexibility with the #9 pick depending on whether one of the WRs we want is there or a great OT or DE falls instead.

Now I admit that my scenarios arent the only ones that fits this set of facts, yours does too Jason, but since they both fit the fact set, we cant use this fact set to say that it tips Poles hand one way or the other?

[dawhizz]

37 minutes ago, jason said:

My opinion on this is, it paints a pretty clear picture that Fields stays as QB.

1. Allen counts for $23M against the cap (correct me if wrong)
2. Guess who's an UFA after 2024?
   • Keenan Allen
   • Teven Jenkins
   • Larry Borom
   • Khari Blasingame
3. Fields has one more year under rookie numbers before a huge payday
4. After the trade the Bears have FOUR PICKS in the 2024 draft, which doesn't fit Poles' message of building through the draft
   • 1.1
   • 1.9
   • 3.75
   • 4.124

Everything above points to a make-or-break year for Fields in 2024, where they'll trade the #1 pick, acquire more than 4 measly picks, load up on talent, likely add starters at OL and WR, then say to Fields, "Time for you to earn your next contract and take us deep into the playoffs."

If Fields fails, then the draft talent is there in 2025 with a year of experience, Keenan Allen's money is off the books, they'll have extra picks from this year's trade, at least the offensive side of the ball is wiped clean, and it'll be time for the inevitably new coaching staff to draft for their future.

 

 

The only thing that doesn't fit is that it's looking like a bad year for QBs in the draft next year.  Unless you think Dak or Trevor Lawrence are going to be free agents, or someone unexpected balls out in college, what is the solution at QB if Fields isn't it?  Draft picks are great, but if no one will trade you a franchise QB, and the draft isn't great at QB, what do you do?

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, dawhizz said:

The only thing that doesn't fit is that it's looking like a bad year for QBs in the draft next year.  Unless you think Dak or Trevor Lawrence are going to be free agents, or someone unexpected balls out in college, what is the solution at QB if Fields isn't it?  Draft picks are great, but if no one will trade you a franchise QB, and the draft isn't great at QB, what do you do?

I remember last year they said other than Williams, the QBs were scarse. Now we have potential 4 going in the first round. No one knows how QBs work out year to year.

We can take a QB out of the first round and have one to develop while Justin proves himself. Nix and Penix are projected to be there in the 2nd round. 

There is always a prospect to get every year . Is Bagent being developed? He's not a tier one but last year Prudy came out of nowhere and was in the SB. Howell and Geno Smith were surprises. Mayfield got cudos. There's never a dire situation when it comes to find a starter.

[jason]

3 hours ago, dawhizz said:

The only thing that doesn't fit is that it's looking like a bad year for QBs in the draft next year.  Unless you think Dak or Trevor Lawrence are going to be free agents, or someone unexpected balls out in college, what is the solution at QB if Fields isn't it?  Draft picks are great, but if no one will trade you a franchise QB, and the draft isn't great at QB, what do you do?

I don’t buy that. All the draft pundits change their minds after getting their panties moist during the regular season. By the end of the year they’ll have 3-4 they think are “sure fire starters,” and maybe one that’s a “generational talent.”

[Mongo3451]

2 minutes ago, jason said:

I don’t buy that. All the draft pundits change their minds after getting their panties moist during the regular season. By the end of the year they’ll have 3-4 they think are “sure fire starters,” and maybe one that’s a “generational talent.”

Agreed.  My 78 year old father said the same thing.  There's always next...

[Stinger226]

6 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

the problem is, Fields doesn't have what it takes to be a winner.

it's not about chances, and timing, situations etc - he has a fatal flaw that was known to all coming out of college. He's had three years to show improvement in that area, and if he has shown any at all, it's been the smallest amount. Not enough.

Other teams dont want him and neither should we.

The morale issues of a QB controversy and all that are only a small part of it - the main thing is - he isn't good at playing QB.

That's your opinion, it only matters what Poles thinks of him. Poles is in the position to make the best call on the good or bad of Justin. The story of Justin being on the trade market is totally media projection. How do have a market when he's not trying to trade him. All of these insiders have not even got one acquisition right. There's no inside information at Halas Hall. 

Facts, Until Poles takes his 30 visit, he has not made any decisions on who is QB is this year. He actually said that.

If he wants Caleb then he will put Justin on the market. Or ( my theory) he keeps both.

We only have 4 draft picks. He will absolutely get more. It increases the chances of his first round picks being traded. 

We still have holes to fill and people  afe offering him a kings ransom for pick one. He literally said he liked what he did last year and thinks that could be better this year.

If everything is OK with Caleb, I thinks he takes him but we don't know that yet.