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Hester gone


BearFan2000
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Exactly. Why can't the "Hester is worth no more than get minimum"-be supported with any sort of data? I've laid out a pretty compelling case as to why he's still valuable. The only real answers for him leaving are other than ability.

 

People have supported their side of this, you just refuse to listen, as usual. Here's the other side, summarized for you so you don't have to make a big effort:

 

* Kickoffs are generally going out of the endzone now. Making a specialist like Hester less valuable.

* Therefore, it's best to have someone in that role who can also provide depth at WR, DB, etc.

* Conjecture is he'll want more than the vet minimum due to his place in history. This may or may not be correct but could mean he's pricing himself out of the market.

* The Bears already have a burner on the roster (forget his name but saw it posted here a week or two ago) and so they may have a younger body ready to go at this position.

* Hester isn't what he once was and although he did have a good year last season, the expectation is he'll continue to slow down over time. If that happens or if the league ends up eliminating KO's his value is further dimished.

 

I don't agree with all of that, it's just a summary of things that have already been said here that you obviously ignored with your comment about people not supporting their ideas with data.

 

Quit being such a friggen tool.

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People have supported their side of this, you just refuse to listen, as usual. Here's the other side, summarized for you so you don't have to make a big effort:

 

* Kickoffs are generally going out of the endzone now. Making a specialist like Hester less valuable.

* Therefore, it's best to have someone in that role who can also provide depth at WR, DB, etc.

* Conjecture is he'll want more than the vet minimum due to his place in history. This may or may not be correct but could mean he's pricing himself out of the market.

* The Bears already have a burner on the roster (forget his name but saw it posted here a week or two ago) and so they may have a younger body ready to go at this position.

* Hester isn't what he once was and although he did have a good year last season, the expectation is he'll continue to slow down over time. If that happens or if the league ends up eliminating KO's his value is further dimished.

 

I don't agree with all of that, it's just a summary of things that have already been said here that you obviously ignored with your comment about people not supporting their ideas with data.

 

Quit being such a friggen tool.

 

That's more like the Cracker we have all gotten to know.

 

Actually, Jason made or agreed with some of your points above. He laid out the first part of the last point you made (having a good year) and provided suppoting data to it. As far as the second part of that, it too is conjecture (him slowing down).

 

I think it safe to assume he might have been able to topple the current return records had players like Steltz not been on the team...all we can do now is look back at 'what might have been'. Buuuuttt... The fact that he had that impact (potential if you will ) and still affected other teams' game plans, means something. That very potential that either he returned it well enough for favorable field position or caused the oppostion to kick away from him makes him worth something. Not sure what financially but at least another year or two. Regardless of his job as "only a specialist" he was a factor in just being in the stadium. That and his potential still put him above most other returners.

 

On the other hand and considering the BIG picture; he doesn't have much else to offer the team. The team needs a fair number of bargain players that can do more than just return. Financially they aren't in a postione to be fickle but instead have to be frugal. Emery has made it pretty clear he isn't all that concerned with tradition if it interferes with the budgetary plan.

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Hester only had 18 punt returns on the entire season, a career low. Not too hard to take any good returner out of the game by not kicking to him. 11 other players had a Punt Return TD last year, and many play another position:

 

Dexter McCluster

Micah Hyde

Jeremy Ross

Antonio Brown

Keshawn Martin

Tandon Doss

Tavon Austin

Marcus Sherels

Travis Benjamin

Trindon Holliday

Dwayne Harris

 

Hester had the most KO returns and did not have a single TD. 6 players had a KO TD.

 

Cordarrelle Patterson

Quintin Demps

Jacoby Jones

Trindon Holliday

Jeremy Ross

Knile Davis

 

Hester is the oldest of the bunch. The team may be looking at bringing in someone who can fill multiple roles and not be an exclusive returner.

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Hester only had 18 punt returns on the entire season, a career low. Not to hard to take any good returner out of the game by not kicking to him. 11 other players had a Punt Return TD last year, and many play another position:

 

Dexter McCluster

Micah Hyde

Jeremy Ross

Antonio Brown

Keshawn Martin

Tandon Doss

Tavon Austin

Marcus Sherels

Travis Benjamin

Trindon Holliday

Dwayne Harris

 

Hester had the most KO returns and did not have a single TD. 6 players had a KO TD.

 

Cordarrelle Patterson

Quintin Demps

Jacoby Jones

Trindon Holliday

Jeremy Ross

Knile Davis

 

Hester is the oldest of the bunch. The team may be looking at bringing in someone who can fill multiple roles and not be an exclusive returner.

I agree, find someone that can make other contributions.

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Because I don't care to spend time to look at the data. He is a specialist and can only return kicks and punts. He is clearly not the same player he was 3 to 4 years ago. If he was the player he was 3 to 4 years ago, I would say keep him and maybe give 1.5 o 2 million a year for a couple of years. He is clearly not.

 

Again, great player. If a returner ends up in the hall of fame it should be him. He changed the game. They moved the kickoff up and he is one of the reasons.

 

However, I am not paying him for past performance.

 

What would you pay him right now, Jason?

 

Peace :dabears

 

Pretty sure I've already said in this thread. Not a ton, but above vet minimum and after a minor negotiation, I think he'd get 1.5-2M.

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People have supported their side of this, you just refuse to listen, as usual. Here's the other side, summarized for you so you don't have to make a big effort:

 

* Kickoffs are generally going out of the endzone now. Making a specialist like Hester less valuable.

* Therefore, it's best to have someone in that role who can also provide depth at WR, DB, etc.

* Conjecture is he'll want more than the vet minimum due to his place in history. This may or may not be correct but could mean he's pricing himself out of the market.

* The Bears already have a burner on the roster (forget his name but saw it posted here a week or two ago) and so they may have a younger body ready to go at this position.

* Hester isn't what he once was and although he did have a good year last season, the expectation is he'll continue to slow down over time. If that happens or if the league ends up eliminating KO's his value is further dimished.

 

I don't agree with all of that, it's just a summary of things that have already been said here that you obviously ignored with your comment about people not supporting their ideas with data.

 

Quit being such a friggen tool.

 

Dude, eat shit and die. I've listened, but those are counter/additional to what was being said about his "value." If all that was said was "need extra roster spot" or "gotta save cap room" then this is a non-issue. It makes more sense in those terms to benefit both ways by using a young burner, who also plays WR, and gets paid a lot less. But what was being said was essentially "he's not that good anymore," which simply isn't true. He is still very good, but he's not superhuman like he once was.

 

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That's more like the Cracker we have all gotten to know.

 

Actually, Jason made or agreed with some of your points above. He laid out the first part of the last point you made (having a good year) and provided suppoting data to it. As far as the second part of that, it too is conjecture (him slowing down).

 

I think it safe to assume he might have been able to topple the current return records had players like Steltz not been on the team...all we can do now is look back at 'what might have been'. Buuuuttt... The fact that he had that impact (potential if you will ) and still affected other teams' game plans, means something. That very potential that either he returned it well enough for favorable field position or caused the oppostion to kick away from him makes him worth something. Not sure what financially but at least another year or two. Regardless of his job as "only a specialist" he was a factor in just being in the stadium. That and his potential still put him above most other returners.

 

On the other hand and considering the BIG picture; he doesn't have much else to offer the team. The team needs a fair number of bargain players that can do more than just return. Financially they aren't in a postione to be fickle but instead have to be frugal. Emery has made it pretty clear he isn't all that concerned with tradition if it interferes with the budgetary plan.

 

Precisely.

 

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I dont think anybody said he sucked, just doesnt have the same valve being he is limited to doing one thing.

At this stage in his career, he is an above average returner that cannot play any other position. Thus he is worth vet minimum. If he added some other value, then I would see signing him to more than minimum. He does not.

 

Peace :dabears

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  • 2 weeks later...
I've probably supported Devin as a Bear more than any. But even I think 4M is stupid. I'm guessing Devin and his agent are setting the bar high so the negotiation process ends around 2M.

I would re-sign him for $2mil for one more year.

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I would re-sign him for $2mil for one more year.

With the diminished importance of kick-offs in the NFL these days i think even that might be too high. All told I would offer either vet minimum or up to 1 mil a year with performance escalators such as punt/kick off return average over X number of returns or number of TDs scored to get to the 2-3 mil point. If he can average 16 yards a punt return, 30 yards kick-off return and net 2-3 TDs then he is definitely worth about 3 mil a season.

 

I think the days of pure returners are over. Unless he can do all 4 phases of special teams then he will quickly end up an afterthought.

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With the diminished importance of kick-offs in the NFL these days i think even that might be too high. All told I would offer either vet minimum or up to 1 mil a year with performance escalators such as punt/kick off return average over X number of returns or number of TDs scored to get to the 2-3 mil point. If he can average 16 yards a punt return, 30 yards kick-off return and net 2-3 TDs then he is definitely worth about 3 mil a season.

 

I think the days of pure returners are over. Unless he can do all 4 phases of special teams then he will quickly end up an afterthought.

Spot on with your opinion

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With the diminished importance of kick-offs in the NFL these days i think even that might be too high. All told I would offer either vet minimum or up to 1 mil a year with performance escalators such as punt/kick off return average over X number of returns or number of TDs scored to get to the 2-3 mil point. If he can average 16 yards a punt return, 30 yards kick-off return and net 2-3 TDs then he is definitely worth about 3 mil a season.

 

I think the days of pure returners are over. Unless he can do all 4 phases of special teams then he will quickly end up an afterthought.

 

I think you're on track with the thought process (i.e. performance escalators), but your requirements are far too high. You realize nobody in the last 10 years of the NFL has been able to average 16 yards a punt and 30 yards a kickoff, and in most years, 30 on a kickoff makes you the league leader? You also realize that last year, Devin Hester was the only guy to average over 27 on kickoffs and over 14 on punts? The ONLY guy. Period.

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