2 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

LOL I didnt know you were so hot, Grizz!

Oh I’m not.  She’s the public affairs rep.  

1 minute ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Oh I’m not.  She’s the public affairs rep.  

my last post brought to you by 30 shots of everclear LOL

13 hours ago, Pixote said:

You do an amazing job providing us with great statistical analysis. I am sure it is a very time consuming project, one which I greatly appreciate. Now we need to make sure Poles gets a copy so he doesn't make a mistake and give up on Fields. ?

After seeing these stats, I am more convinced than I was before that trading the #1 pick to  build the roster around Fields would be the best route to go.

Thanks again for these brilliant contributions to our forum!

 

I also think Fields will benefit a ton from having two explosive wideouts. Just think about how much harder it will be to stop Fields from running or making big plays with his arms when defenses have to watch out for a more dynamic receiving corps. Shoot trade down and draft Marvin plus Brockers (or an LT) and than take a te in 2nd round (if you go lt in first) or even take a 2nd wideout given the draft. Go center and defense rest of draft and spend money on dline and resigning JJ. 

7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

yeah, if you believe in Fields, and you also believe in one or more of the rookie QBs, then it comes down to "which is better, a rookie on his rookie deal, or Fields and the first pick in the draft"

I think most of us, myself included, have to say that if you believe in Fields, having Fields AND everything the first overall pick brings is better than the cap savings on having a rookie, and their developmental schedule.

The question has always been do you believe in Fields, do you believe in any of the rookies.

Until this last game, I did not believe in Fields. Now I see the possibility that he has it in him. I wish I had four more games to see it, but no one said this would be easy. But yes, he showed a sustained ability I hadn't seen from him before.

Of course if you don't believe in Fields, the choice is easy. The choice is also easy if you don't believe in any of the rookies.

It all comes down to making a bet on Justin's future.

Gun to my head if I had to decide right now, Id keep Fields, and blow the first overall pick up into as much as I could get. MHJr or Odunze or Nabers wouldnt suck. Neither would a dominant Edge. and much more.

But I wouldnt sign the 5th year option. I wouldnt want to make that bet to the point that I was hamstrung in 2025, espeically if we have two first rounders again. And If Im wrong, and Fields balls out, then Im signing him to a long term deal, and Ill miss out on the $15 Mil savings in 2025. Thats better than losing the bet and having $25Mil on your books for 2025 for a guy who isnt starting.

And all of this, predicated on one game. Sheesh I hate that. I used to be able to say "he has never had a game where he did this consistently" and now he has. One game.

At least I know he has it in him now i guess.

The bears also benefit from trading for a haul in sense that you will have a few high picks who are cheap which make up for paying a qb. 

21 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

my last post brought to you by 30 shots of everclear LOL

Wow!!!  I salute you!!! ?

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Wow!!!  I salute you!!! ?

ha Im lying but that's what it might to take to make you look like her hahaha

On 1/2/2024 at 4:09 PM, Alaskan Grizzly said:

 

This right here is the cement on the issue. No way they piss off DJ and the rest of the locker room. Fields is staying.

 

8 hours ago, jason said:

This right here is the cement on the issue. No way they piss off DJ and the rest of the locker room. Fields is staying.

Poles is going to do what he thinks is best for the team but dont think he isnt listening to the locker room. If he picks another QB and he plays poor in the first season, he will lose the fanbase, locker room and the owners. Not good for job security.

Here are my thoughts from a year ago.  So far, the OL is better than last year, but not a finished product.  The Whitehair to center thing failed, just as it did a few years ago.  Give me a new center and the starting five are solid.  The defense has exceeded my expectations. (Upgrade three DL positions, bang!) The key, as always, is Justin.  On the season as a whole, big fail.  Last 6 games, average.  As of now, Justin is on the out.  He can sway my opinion with a plus game Sunday.  We don't necessarily need to win, but HE must leave his mark, especially in the fourth quarter. (He definitely can't be a reason we lose)

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Here are my thoughts from a year ago.  So far, the OL is better than last year, but not a finished product.  The Whitehair to center thing failed, just as it did a few years ago.  Give me a new center and the starting five are solid.  The defense has exceeded my expectations. (Upgrade three DL positions, bang!) The key, as always, is Justin.  On the season as a whole, big fail.  Last 6 games, average.  As of now, Justin is on the out.  He can sway my opinion with a plus game Sunday.  We don't necessarily need to win, but HE must leave his mark, especially in the fourth quarter. (He definitely can't be a reason we lose)

Spot on, good job

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Here are my thoughts from a year ago.  So far, the OL is better than last year, but not a finished product.  The Whitehair to center thing failed, just as it did a few years ago.  Give me a new center and the starting five are solid.  The defense has exceeded my expectations. (Upgrade three DL positions, bang!) The key, as always, is Justin.  On the season as a whole, big fail.  Last 6 games, average.  As of now, Justin is on the out.  He can sway my opinion with a plus game Sunday.  We don't necessarily need to win, but HE must leave his mark, especially in the fourth quarter. (He definitely can't be a reason we lose)

The team is on the cusp of meeting your record predictions (and “no playoffs”) and Justin is “on the out”?  

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Here are my thoughts from a year ago.  So far, the OL is better than last year, but not a finished product.  The Whitehair to center thing failed, just as it did a few years ago.  Give me a new center and the starting five are solid.  The defense has exceeded my expectations. (Upgrade three DL positions, bang!) The key, as always, is Justin.  On the season as a whole, big fail.  Last 6 games, average.  As of now, Justin is on the out.  He can sway my opinion with a plus game Sunday.  We don't necessarily need to win, but HE must leave his mark, especially in the fourth quarter. (He definitely can't be a reason we lose)

But the Bears have improved offensively. They also have one game left.

2023.                                     2022

Pts/Gm = 21.9. 16th.             19.2. 23rd

Tot Yds/gm= 331.4 17th.      307.8. 28th

Pass yds/gm= 186.2  27th.    130.5. 32nd

Rush Yds/gm 145.3. 2nd.       177.3 1st

Here are some team passing stats from pro football reference.  Fields throws the ball away a lot.  A legit WR 2  and Center will help improve these lines.

38 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Here are some team passing stats from pro football reference.  Fields throws the ball away a lot.  A legit WR 2  and Center will help improve these lines.

He is also under pressure at a high rate which affects his stats.

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Here are some team passing stats from pro football reference.  Fields throws the ball away a lot.  A legit WR 2  and Center will help improve these lines.

I remember all of the Cutler arguments.  Get him more weapons. Get him OL.  Get him a good coordinator.  In the end, it was Cutler.

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I remember all of the Cutler arguments.  Get him more weapons. Get him OL.  Get him a good coordinator.  In the end, it was Cutler.

Exactly.  One can manipulate statistics and manufacture excuses to hide reality.  

14 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

He is also under pressure at a high rate which affects his stats.

Yeah the pressure rate matters. They need to have all of the stats weighted with pressure %. 

I know this is considered a particularly strong QB draft, but looking at the last ten years if top 3 picks at Qb does not fill me with confidence:

Bortles, Winston, Mariota, Goff, Wentz, Mayfield, Darnold, Murray, Burrow, Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Young, Stroud 

Whose career do you want over Fields? Burrow and Stroud? Maybe Lawrence? That’s not inspiring.  

 

 

27 minutes ago, dawhizz said:

I know this is considered a particularly strong QB draft, but looking at the last ten years if top 3 picks at Qb does not fill me with confidence:

Bortles, Winston, Mariota, Goff, Wentz, Mayfield, Darnold, Murray, Burrow, Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Young, Stroud 

Whose career do you want over Fields? Burrow and Stroud? Maybe Lawrence? That’s not inspiring.  

Burrows numbers are worse than Fields, Lawrence is meh, and once they get tape on Stroud, more than likely, his numbers will drop too, but Stroud would be the only one I would consider.

15 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

He is also under pressure at a high rate which affects his stats.

According to PFF, Fields is pressured on 48.1% of his dropbacks (the most in the NFL). Jordan Love is at 31.2% which is the 5th best among qualifying QBs. Tua is #1 at 24.3%, basically half as many dropbacks is he pressured, compared to Fields. 

10 minutes ago, adam said:

According to PFF, Fields is pressured on 48.1% of his dropbacks (the most in the NFL). Jordan Love is at 31.2% which is the 5th best among qualifying QBs. Tua is #1 at 24.3%, basically half as many dropbacks is he pressured, compared to Fields. 

Fields also holds the ball longer than 3 seconds, while Tua is one of the fastest to get it out of his hands.

So is Fields pressured because the OL sucks or because he holds the ball too long?

17 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

But the Bears have improved offensively. They also have one game left.

2023.                                     2022

Pts/Gm = 21.9. 16th.             19.2. 23rd

Tot Yds/gm= 331.4 17th.      307.8. 28th

Pass yds/gm= 186.2  27th.    130.5. 32nd

Rush Yds/gm 145.3. 2nd.       177.3 1st

That includes 4.5 games with Bagent at the helm, so those numbers are even more impressive when you consider that.

39 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Fields also holds the ball longer than 3 seconds, while Tua is one of the fastest to get it out of his hands.

So is Fields pressured because the OL sucks or because he holds the ball too long?

Very true, Fields is to blame for a good portion of the pressure, but the TTT stat is super skewed because if he scrambles and then throws, that 5 second play counts towards that number making it look worse. If you just time non-scramble plays, it is much lower.

Also, Getsy has no quick slants or other passes that get out immediately like McDaniels does. That is very frustrating.

9 minutes ago, adam said:

Also, Getsy has no quick slants or other passes that get out immediately like McDaniels does. That is very frustrating.

Justin can't throw them.  He's got a tell.  He cocks his elbow and defensive tackles' hands go up.  Or Justin throws it into a helmet.  That's why Getsy stopped calling them.  It was in the playbook last year...