Weekly Tankathon Meter

[DABEARSDABOMB]

9 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Everything you said is realistic. So at worst 2nd and our pick 8-10. Still nets us a couple blue chip players. 

It is a deep wide receiver draft - so yeah, they probably don't get MHJ, but there are some really really blue chip wideouts out there if that is the route they go and with the depth of QB's in this draft, you can also probably go QB and OT if you wanted to do that as well.  

[adam]

26 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Everything you said is realistic. So at worst 2nd and our pick 8-10. Still nets us a couple blue chip players. 

I would say at worst #2 and #8. At best #1 and #4. Most realistic #1 and #6. 

[adam]

16 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

It is a deep wide receiver draft - so yeah, they probably don't get MHJ, but there are some really really blue chip wideouts out there if that is the route they go and with the depth of QB's in this draft, you can also probably go QB and OT if you wanted to do that as well.  

So many decisions, it is going to be crazy. The Bears record is going to be the biggest factor. If they somehow win out or even go 4-1 in their last 5. That would put them in the teens. That pick would not be as "tradeable" as the #1. So do you trade that pick to get another blue chip vet and an additional 2025 1st, or do you draft the QB or MHJ? Decisions decisions.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

6 minutes ago, adam said:

So many decisions, it is going to be crazy. The Bears record is going to be the biggest factor. If they somehow win out or even go 4-1 in their last 5. That would put them in the teens. That pick would not be as "tradeable" as the #1. So do you trade that pick to get another blue chip vet and an additional 2025 1st, or do you draft the QB or MHJ? Decisions decisions.

MHJ is great and all - but I am not using a #1 pick on a wideout.  Or quite frankly any player other than a QB. So if I am not taking a QB, I am trading down.  

[Lucky Luciano]

6 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

MHJ is great and all - but I am not using a #1 pick on a wideout.  Or quite frankly any player other than a QB. So if I am not taking a QB, I am trading down.  

i agree but i would add this to a #1 pick... offensive left tackle and a killer sack machine defensive end.

[adam]

So all the Tankathon Teams for Week 13 have played, so the only thing that will change slightly is the SoS.

CAR and NE may come down to a SoS tiebreaker, but it looks like NE has the tougher schedule which will make CAR win the tie breaker. For CAR upcoming opponents, NO, ATL, GB, JAX, and TB are all playing for a playoff spot, so those are going to be some tough games to win. NE's only chance is Week 18 against the Jets. It might be Bill's last game. I think they win that one.

ARZ looks much better with Murray but besides playing the Bears (in Chicago), they have SF, PHI, and SEA. So it looks like the Bears game is their only realistic shot at a win. It will only matter for draft status if they win and teams like WAS and NYG lose out. Any current 4 win team that loses out would jump ARZ in the draft. So they have a lot of incentive to lose out to be honest. They could drop from #3 to possibly #6 or #7 if they beat the Bears. So lose out, locked into #3, beat the Bears, draft #6 or #7.

WAS is clearly tanking and their only chance at a win is Week 16 against Jets. Otherwise, they play LAR, SF, and DAL. They look so bad, their defense was gutted (lost Sweat and Young). I don't think they win another game.

NYG is terrible too. They got PHI twice, LAR, NO, and GB. They probably don't win another game.

NYJ have two winnable games, I think they beat WAS and lose to NE. However, they could easily lose out or win both. 

For TEN, they play MIA, HOUx2, SEA, and JAX. They really don't have any winnable games, but I think they eek one out anyway, Vrabel teams always do, I will say probably one vs HOU. 

The Bears are the wild card. They are in the tankathon, but clearly the best team. However, if I use the same projections as the other teams, they probably only win 2, against ARZ and ATL, and even then really just the ARZ one. So either 5 or 6 wins.

Here are the draft/playoff outcomes based on the Bears final record:

Bears 4-13 (lose out, #3 pick because ARZ would get their 4th win beating the Bears, NYG and WAS lose SoS with CHI)
Bears 5-12 (finish 1-4, #6 pick) - most likely based on current teams rankings
Bears 6-11 (finish 2-3, #8 pick) - most likely based on similar projections
Bears 7-10 (finish 3-2, #12/13 pick) - most likely based on recent win/loss
Bears 8-9 (finish 4-1, #17/18 pick or #7 seed) - most likely Bears thing to do, finish as the best non-playoff team
Bears 9-8  (finish 5-0, #6 or #7 seed) - most likely based on recent play

[BearFan PHX]

On 11/28/2023 at 10:39 AM, DABEARSDABOMB said:

MHJ is great and all - but I am not using a #1 pick on a wideout.  Or quite frankly any player other than a QB. So if I am not taking a QB, I am trading down.  

Well I cant say MHJr will be Randy Moss, but if you knew it was gonna be Randy Moss, would you consider that WR at #1?

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Well I cant say MHJr will be Randy Moss, but if you knew it was gonna be Randy Moss, would you consider that WR at #1?

Yes.  Thing is MHJ isn't close to the freak in athleticism.  What you will get is a bigger, stronger version of his dad, which I'm very good with.

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Yes.  Thing is MHJ isn't close to the freak in athleticism.  What you will get is a bigger, stronger version of his dad, which I'm very good with.

cool, cuz Id take Randy Moss in a heartbeat, and MHJr looks really good, and I dont know exactly what he will be in the NFL. He looks like he's gonna be dominant, but that's just a guess of course until we see it.

Glad we agree that if you KNEW it was Moss, we'd both take him.

[Mongo3451]

9 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Glad we agree that if you KNEW it was Moss, we'd both take him.

Everyone would if they knew it was "good" Randy.  He was a team destroyer for a few years.  MHJ is a good dude, just like his dad. He'll run great routes and block when asked.  

Here's the million dollar question:  is he a bigger difference maker than Brock Bowers?  I'd kill to draft both...

[BearFan PHX]

2 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Here's the million dollar question:  is he a bigger difference maker than Brock Bowers?  I'd kill to draft both...

That IS the question (or one of them!)

I was just seeing if you had any wiggle room in the no WR at #1, and you do.

I need to watch more film before i can really participate in these discussions. Im sure Ill have more formulated opinions as we get closer to the draft

[adam]

9 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Everyone would if they knew it was "good" Randy.  He was a team destroyer for a few years.  MHJ is a good dude, just like his dad. He'll run great routes and block when asked.  

Here's the million dollar question:  is he a bigger difference maker than Brock Bowers?  I'd kill to draft both...

Another question is, does the new acquisition upgrade that position more than the other?

So MHJ vs Mooney, or Bowers vs Tonyan. 

I don't think you really could go wrong with either, but Bowers provides something unique that defenses have to adjust to. On one of the telecasts, they were talking about how Georgia used Bowers to get the mismatches on almost every play where teams had to start doubling or bracketing him. He really is a seam buster.

[Mongo3451]

Both are massive upgrades.  MHJ is 6 inches taller, with a much larger catch radius.  This would also put Mooney in the slot, where he belongs.  Tonyan is terrible and needs to go.  He misses blocks and drops important passes.  Bowers is extremely talented.  He's faster and shiftier than Kelce.  Great hands and great blocker that runs like a RB with the ball after catch.  Best prospect at the position I've seen in a long time.

[Stinger226]

38 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Both are massive upgrades.  MHJ is 6 inches taller, with a much larger catch radius.  This would also put Mooney in the slot, where he belongs.  Tonyan is terrible and needs to go.  He misses blocks and drops important passes.  Bowers is extremely talented.  He's faster and shiftier than Kelce.  Great hands and great blocker that runs like a RB with the ball after catch.  Best prospect at the position I've seen in a long time.

I think if we trade out of our first pick, Bowers pick comes into play. With 2 TE sets that's only 2 WRs on the field but would be a nightmare to defend.

At the top of the draft 2 Qbs, 2 LTs and MHJ. After that Bowers is the most likely choice. I think Braxton Jones is playing well enough to not take a OT. Edge or 3 T come into play if we drop back in the top 10 picks.

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think if we trade out of our first pick, Bowers pick comes into play. With 2 TE sets that's only 2 WRs on the field but would be a nightmare to defend.

At the top of the draft 2 Qbs, 2 LTs and MHJ. After that Bowers is the most likely choice. I think Braxton Jones is playing well enough to not take a OT. Edge or 3 T come into play if we drop back in the top 10 picks.

I have seen a few scenarios where the Bears get MHJ AND Bowers, then sign Chase Young in free agency to fill 3 holes with some blue chippers. 

[Stinger226]

11 minutes ago, adam said:

I have seen a few scenarios where the Bears get MHJ AND Bowers, then sign Chase Young in free agency to fill 3 holes with some blue chippers. 

First, I wouldn't pay Young, to much of a injury risk plus don't think Poles ties that much money in DL. More so to draft one.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

53 minutes ago, adam said:

then sign Chase Young in free agency

Or Danielle Hunter...?‍♂️

[adam]

The NE win against PIT gives CAR basically a 2-win gap between them and the next two teams. With ARZ's SoS, it looks like both CAR and NE would win that tiebreaker, so the only one of concern seems to be NE's SoS which at this moment is slightly lower than CARs heading into the weekend. If CAR loses, that would drop CAR's back under NE's. From what I can tell, an opponent's loss drops the SoS by .005 and a win increases it between by about the same.

Here are the uncommon opponents, these the set of teams that get more wins will hurt that team's chances at the tiebreaker. So for the Bears, we want CAR to have the weaker teams and more losses with that group. CAR's group has a slightly better record and 2 more games remaining. This also only matters in the event of a tie, which would mean CAR won 2 more games than NE, which would drop their SoS by .010 total. 

NE
PHI 10-2
NYJ 4-8
LVR 5-7
BUF 6-6
WAS 4-9
NYG 4-8
LAC 5-7
PIT 7-6
KC 8-4
DEN 6-6

59-63 (48 games remaining)

CAR
ATL 6-6
SEA 6-6
MIN 6-6
DET 9-3
HOU 7-5
CHI 4-8
TEN 4-8
TB 5-7
JAX 8-4
GB 6-6

61-59 (50 games remaining)

[Stinger226]

As we view the top pick, if the Bears win 3 or 4 games we could drop out of the top 10.

[Mongo3451]

28 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

As we view the top pick, if the Bears win 3 or 4 games we could drop out of the top 10.

I would be good with them learning to win.

[Stinger226]

4 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I would be good with them learning to win.

We should always try to win, if we win8-9 games that helps the culture to change to a winning culture. Any fan that roots for us to lose, isnt a true fan.

[BearFan PHX]

26 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Any fan that roots for us to lose, isnt a true fan.

sure, if youre a simpleton.

It takes an IQ over, say, 80, to understand the difference between strategy and tactics.

There is a famous experiment where they ask 2 year olds to not eat a piece of candy and if they can wait they get two pieces later - but they cant wait, cuz they have the brains of children.

[Bears4Ever_34]

Bears are virtually locked in to a top 2 pick, which is just fine by me. I didn't want to come out of this draft without one of Caleb Williams or MHJ.

If they have the 1st pick, I'm taking Williams. I've kind of made up my mind on Fields. I'd keep him over any other quarterback not named Caleb Williams, but I also think if he were going to be a special quarterback, we'd know it by now. 

Williams has a chance to be special. I have questions about his emotional maturity, but the arm talent is undeniable. If you can pair him up with an offensive minded head coach that can reel in some of the hero ball stuff, this franchise could get turned around in a hurry.

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

sure, if youre a simpleton.

It takes an IQ over, say, 80, to understand the difference between strategy and tactics.

There is a famous experiment where they ask 2 year olds to not eat a piece of candy and if they can wait they get two pieces later - but they cant wait, cuz they have the brains of children.

Sorry, you lost me.  What's the intent of this?

[BearFan PHX]

48 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Sorry, you lost me.  What's the intent of this?

Stingers being an ass again, calling me not a true fan because I want to draft a new QB and get a new head coach. I want to be a dominant team, not win some meaningless games that dont affect our playoff outcome.

Given that the title of the thread is "Tankathon" it's not like I'm the only human that has ever thought this.

But whether you want to win these games because you want to instill a culture of winning, or because you just like to see the Bears win, or whether youd rather think long term and not win now, either way you can be a "true fan" despite his constant and ridiculous baiting. (bating?)

it's not meant to anyone else, no matter what they think of winning this year. We are all true fans in any case.