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Stinger226

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11 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

 

I think Swift is reaching a bit here, at least in terms of using the word "breakout".  I think it might be reasonable to expect Gipson to return to his previous level of play but 7 sacks would hardly make him a breakout player.   There is some validity to his argument about the number of double teams affecting him.  He's definitely not someone with the talent to overcome that, few are.  Mostly that double team rate ~25% implies just how poor everyone else was on that front last year. 

We saw in 2021 that Gipson wore down as his snap count increased.  I didn't see anything different in 2022.  I think with our new additions in Walker and Green Gipson slides back into a smaller role that fits him better.   Keep him fresh and we should see a few more sacks and pressures in 2023.  

Aside from that we absolutely will have better pressure up the middle this year with Billings, Dexter, and Pickens.   That should also allow Gipson to take advantage on a few plays where the QB has to move around the pocket.  

One thing I did get out of this chart.... Danielle Hunter hardly seems like a player worth trading for.  Based on this data  we should have gone after Leonard Floyd.  We didn't and we've remained quiet in personnel moves after minicamp.  I'm not saying we won't add someone but they clearly feel no sense of urgency to do so.  I think that's a good sign that we're better off at Edge than we might think.  Perhaps some combination of Terrell Lewis, DomRob, and Gipson looked better this offseason, or all 3.   

I have similar concerns with depth at OT and so far it's been quiet there too.  We're just 3 weeks away from training camp starting.  Ideally if you sign someone I tend to think you'd want them to move and get settled in town and at least have time to get some familiarity with the playbook before camp starts.  

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I like his optimism but don't always quite have the same opinion as him. I didn't know about some of the stats he presented which gives more hope that Gipson may be productive. Obviously this particular stat ( double teams) isn't the most important but does add to it. I think he should have won more of the one on ones thou. He'll be better than last year but don't see him anywhere close to double digits.

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8 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I think that's a good sign that we're better off at Edge than we might think.  Perhaps some combination of Terrell Lewis, DomRob, and Gipson looked better this offseason, or all 3.   

 

I have similar concerns with depth at OT and so far it's been quiet there too.  We're just 3 weeks away from training camp starting.  Ideally if you sign someone I tend to think you'd want them to move and get settled in town and at least have time to get some familiarity with the playbook before camp starts. 

I've been thinking both of these things too - I hope we are better off at DE than it appears, and I wonder about a backup OT.

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8 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Since an article ranking the best LBers in the NFL. Edmunds was 7th and no Roquan. Fred Warner was ranked the best.

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-best-linebackers-fred-warner-bobby-wagner-lavonte-david/

Edmunds fits our system better than Smith and his centerfield range gives the safeties a bit more comfort to watch the outside closer.  

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9 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Since an article ranking the best LBers in the NFL. Edmunds was 7th and no Roquan. Fred Warner was ranked the best.

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-best-linebackers-fred-warner-bobby-wagner-lavonte-david/

 

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Edmunds fits our system better than Smith and his centerfield range gives the safeties a bit more comfort to watch the outside closer.  

agree. Edmunds is easily the best MLB in the league at doing what we will ask him to do.

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That link also ranks CBs, Ss, etc. No other Bears make the list. 

The one thing to note about defensive players in individual rankings, a ton of their performance is influenced by their teammates. A ton of Philly secondary players made the list, but if they had the Bears D-Line, I don't know if any of them make the list. I know that holds for some offensive positions as well, but there is a reason why you see a lot of SF, PHI, and BUF defenders on the lists, because they had dominant D-Lines. 

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2 hours ago, adam said:

That link also ranks CBs, Ss, etc. No other Bears make the list. 

The one thing to note about defensive players in individual rankings, a ton of their performance is influenced by their teammates. A ton of Philly secondary players made the list, but if they had the Bears D-Line, I don't know if any of them make the list. I know that holds for some offensive positions as well, but there is a reason why you see a lot of SF, PHI, and BUF defenders on the lists, because they had dominant D-Lines. 

And you will see which players get the big contracts with their team.   

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one of the most fun things about watching football is how much of a team sport it is - especially on defense. everything positive or negative is a multiplier on everything else.

Amen to the idea that great DLs make secondaries look great. And conversely shut down corners can gift coverage sacks to linemen.

We need some great DEs!

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10 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

one of the most fun things about watching football is how much of a team sport it is - especially on defense. everything positive or negative is a multiplier on everything else.

Amen to the idea that great DLs make secondaries look great. And conversely shut down corners can gift coverage sacks to linemen.

We need some great DEs!

true thoughts. 

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All the preconceived thoughts of the Bears is based on last year. This year will change the narrative forever. 2018 was awesome with how it played out, but this team has more potential for ongoing success. It wasnt bringing in quick fixes and some people having career years. The basis for this team is two drafts by Poles and the luck of having Justin Fields. It only gets better from here out. 

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1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

All the preconceived thoughts of the Bears is based on last year. This year will change the narrative forever. 2018 was awesome with how it played out, but this team has more potential for ongoing success. It wasnt bringing in quick fixes and some people having career years. The basis for this team is two drafts by Poles and the luck of having Justin Fields. It only gets better from here out. 

I just hope Fields works out. His play will be the difference between 10 wins and 5 wins. If he plays like he did in college and carries the team with his arm and legs, this team can win 10. If he struggles to read defenses and complete short passes, this team will be lucky to win 5 or 6. 

Very few QBs have turned into any special with 25 starts under their belts with 24 TDs and 21 INTs averaging 150 passing yds per game. Lamar Jackson already had his MVP season by start 22. Josh Allen is close, but even he had more TDs, yards and less INTs at that point. Jalen Hurts is also close, but I don't think the Bears have the same number of vets the Eagles had in 2022. So from a pure "stats" perspective, Fields is no different than other failed 1st round pick QBs at this point.

The good thing is the Bears have a safety net. If Fields doesn't play well, the stats didn't lie, and the Bears will have 2 top 10 draft picks to move up and get one of the no-brainer QB picks in 2024. Also, if Fields is bad, the Bears may have 2x top 5 picks, which could allow them to get a QB and another player in the top 10 next year. 

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I think the problem with Bears fans (me included) is I have never seen a QB being developed by a team. We either had rookies that fall flat or a vet that doesnt get better. Jay Culter came here with talent but the roster and coaching just dragged him down. Now we have a good staff in place to develop a QB, and that is what is happening in real time. Some undeniable traits. A leader, works hard, loves football, doesnt have injury issues looming. You can see him get better last year. Now we have to trust when the coaches say he is getting it. We never seen that before so we just say (we hope). He is special because of his legs but he has high end passing skills that will arrive this year. 

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I think that QB development is a funny thing. It doesnt happen linearly, so it's hard to see sometimes.

Consider a stone archway over a door. Each piece of stone is like a wedge and they all lean on each other. If you're building one, you need a wooden support to hold the wedges until the past piece is in. If even one piece is missing, it doesnt stand together, but put in that last piece, and it's solid and needs no support at all.

In a way, it's like that for quarterbacks. They have so many things to master, and if one of them is off, then the entire performance is off. If you take your drop, look off the safety, read the right man, find a throwing lane, release the ball on time but your footwork is off, its an incompletion. Each part has to right for the entire thing to work.

So as QBs learn and get better, the coaches see each wedge separately and are able to judge progress in those areas. We really only see the final outcome of all the pieces together. And in truth, we see the outcome of the QB play, the WR play, the OL play and the playcalling.

Longwindedly, what I'm trying to say is that Fields could have been making steady progress all last year, and if we only see stats, we wont know that three of his wedges have improved from awful to really good, because another wedge hasnt reached maturity yet.

There is every reason to think that Fields will put it all together. And as has been said before, if not, Caleb Williams is out there.

Personally, I think Fields is gonna be great.

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On 7/6/2023 at 10:48 AM, BearFan PHX said:


Personally, I think Fields is gonna be great.

I would agree. It’s not for a lack of him trying for sure.  Picture below is of he and some of his receiving corps working out together a few days ago. Two things of note; no Claypool and is it me or does Mooney look like he’s prepping to do work as a slot receiver?  

IMG_5127.jpeg

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I think this was last week, pretty sure Claypool was still in England when they met up.  Also not sure Claypool is cleared to practice yet although he was doing some running around in England with the kids at the camps.  

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3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

 

I think I'm far higher on him being effective this year than most.  The only other college DT I saw rag-doll Olinemen like he does in this video was Jalen Carter.  I time, I think people will look back and label him a draft steal and wonder why he wasn't a first round pick.  We all made so much of his slow get-off (myself included) but we're already hearing that is changing with the Bears.   The athleticism and power is there for a big man to wreak havoc inside.   

I can't wait to see him lined up next to Billings, yes at 3-tech.  Nobody is getting through the middle of that Dline.   If you have two beasts like that inside it will take 3 players to block them leaving both edges 1on1.  Or a team is holding back a blocker like a TE/RB.  Less people able to go out on routes is still a win for the Dline and the defense IMO.    

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19 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I think I'm far higher on him being effective this year than most.  The only other college DT I saw rag-doll Olinemen like he does in this video was Jalen Carter.  I time, I think people will look back and label him a draft steal and wonder why he wasn't a first round pick.  We all made so much of his slow get-off (myself included) but we're already hearing that is changing with the Bears.   The athleticism and power is there for a big man to wreak havoc inside.   

I'm with you.  I think he will be the biggest steal of the entire draft.  His slow "get off" was due to him being asked to read before going.  He has every tool required to be a monster.  Not one bit of his size is manufactured either.  With his frame, he can easily carry 20 more pounds of muscle and lose any speed.  He'll have a learning curve and eventually be a plus starter.

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I am not sure if this can open unless you are a part of twitter but he impresses me a lot. We dont have  a lot to go by, but Poles came in here saying he knows linemen. He identified a small school LT that started every game and looks to be the real deal. Did he now identify a DT that will out play expectations. I think so. He is a beast, watched everything I could of his you tube stuff, I get why some said he was slow off the line but he showed flashes of quickness. Come to find out, he was playing the two gap system. Seen a video where his D line coach was interviewed a former coach with the Giants. Everyone that is around him is quite impressed. 

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