Bearstalk

Based on the preseason predictions, these were the most under and over achieving teams this year with 1 week left: 1. DEN 11-6 > 4-12 (-7) 2. LAR 11-6 > 5-11 (-6) 3. IND 9-8 > 4-11-1 (-4.5) 4. TB 12-5 > 8-8 (-4) 5. ARZ 8-9 > 4-12 (-4) 1. PHI 9-8 > 13-3 (+4) 2. NYG 6-11 > 9-6-1 (+3.5) 3T. JAX 5-12 > 8-8 (+3) 3T. MIN 9-8 > 12-4 (+3) 3T. ATL 3-14 > 6-10 (+3) 3T. SEA 5-12 > 8-8 (+3) DEN and LAR are by far the farthest off their projections. IND was a lot worse than expected. PHI and NYG both surprised. Of the positive teams, only PHI and JAX had a decent point differential. NYG was +0, MIN -19, ATL -34, and SEA…

Our greatest conversation for a long time has been how do we get better. We've been having it for 15 years and running. I'd like to take a slightly different approach and ask, what is best for 2024? We already know what the needs are, but where should the sense of urgency be applied for 2024? The reason I'm choosing this year is because I don't think we'll be ready next year. So for this off-season, I'm identifying our top draft need as WR. Is it the weakest unit on the team? No, but it's close. WR's generally take time to transition to the NFL unless they have elite traits, so drafting one now with those traits will be nasty in year two. There is also go…

Watching the Year-End College games, I cannot help but list my takes. First, the College system for games tied at end of regulation is awesome. BOTH teams have a chance to win in overtime, not just the team who is lucky enough to win a coin toss and get a TD, leaving the loser of the coin toss frustrated. Why in the hell doesn't the NFL wake up and make changes? Second, Colleges are basically the NFL's minor league system. Our developmental league. So why in the hell do they have different rules? Wouldn't it make sense for these college players to be acclimated to the rules they are going to be asked to play by if drafted? (Example 1: In college football, there …

I hope he is better at Cougar hunting than he is at QBing because he looks terrible. That game last night was one of the worst performances I have seen from a #2 pick that I can recall. This is also coming after a 300-yd game against DET last week and he also had 355 yards against NE a few weeks ago. His QBR last night was 5.2. Only Kyle Allen and Matt Ryan had worse QBR games with as many passing attempts this season. What is absolutely wild is his completion percentage (among other things). He was 50% last night, 51.4% against DET and only 40.9% against NE. He had a 55.6% last year and some how is worse this year with 54.5%. It is not even like he is throwing…

It is going to be COLD on Saturday. Wind Chill temps between -10 and -15 at game time. Brutal conditions. The ground is going to be like concrete. Huge injury risk. I feel like this is going to be a ground and pound game with very little passing. Probably lower scoring than the line is at. I am thinking 16-14 or something ugly like that.

We will be adding in the draft and FAgency. What moves does Poles make that will give us a winning season next yr. We cant fill every spot so we figure 9 new starters. Lets say we get the 2nd pick, 56, 65, and 101. These are picks that probably will give us starters from day one. Anything in the rest of the draft will just be gravy if they end up starting. With 135 mil, in cap space, I think he makes 2 big signings, and 3 midland signings. For sake of argument we resign Monty to a 3 yr 19mil deal. I am using OTCs valuation numbers + That have Monty at 5 mil value We resign Morrow at 3/24, OTC valuation at 8 mil We bring back Armon Watts, Josh B…

Velus Jones is not going to be anything. I would not be surprised if he was cut in the offseason. At his age, they touted this maturity and work ethic. The dude is a WR that can't catch and fumbles, which is 50% of his job. It doesn't matter how fast he is if he can't catch or when he does, fumbles. The Gordon that was drafted finally showed up. He was all over the place, INT, fumble recovery, and some great tackling. This is the guy everyone expected. I hope he finishes the season like this. I have been mixed on the coaching staff, but what they are doing with this roster is quite impressive. From last year, the defense lost Mack, Hicks, Quinn, Smith, and Ja…

time to look for a new kicker, possibly round 5-7 unless a really good FA is available. if we were in the hunt for the playoffs, this year he has cost us at least 2-3 games. any field goal under 50 should be automatic. if you can't hit xtra points yer done. this makes 2 out of 3 years with us he has sucked. time to move on.

We get to see one of the MVP favorites in Hurts, who looks a lot like Fields in terms of performance. Philly just put up 48, 35, and 40 against NYG, TEN, and GB, so this does not bode well for our defense. I figure they will try to slow them down and make them run while the Bears run 60% of the time. Depending on player health, I figure this will be a closer game than expected, but the Bears still lose by 10. I am figuring 30-20 right now.

The Bears really got the shaft in terms of SoS this year. The NFC North in general got both East divisions which don't have a team with a losing record. So that is 8 games against winning teams, then the Bears have 2x MIN and played SF. So 11 games against winning teams, and 4 of the non-winning games are against GB and DET. That leaves ATL and HOU as the last two games. I still can't believe the Bears lost to ATL. After the next two weeks, the Bears will have played the top 4 teams in terms of DVOA, PHI, BUF, SF, and DAL. Talk about bad luck. At least the Bears get the NFC South next year. That is the only division without a team with a winning record. They al…

I'm worried about winning, Even with our depleted roster, you can feel this team getting stronger. Pretty soon those bad 4th quarter play calls aren't going to be enough to hold back this team and keep them from beating someone. Probably the Lions and/or the Vikings. But with Fields being such a hero, cant you see some kind of miracle against the Eagles or the Bills? I am thrilled at the growth and cant wait to see what Fields and this staff can do with a proper roster. But I want that #2 pick. It means so much more than the #5 in terms of getting Jalen Carter, or some really sweet bundle of first round picks, the kind we used to be on the giving side of. …

The Bears had a nice mini-bye and 1st game back, so let's see how they do after their real bye. Herbert may be back, Brisker and Gordon should be. The O-Line may be more solidified with Leatherwood at RT. This will be the first time to really put some plays in for Claypool as the WR1. The two games out of the bye will be good tests for the Bears, and we will get to see Hurts and Allen at Soldier Field. BUF is #1 in DVOA and PHI is #3. DAL is #2, so these games will probably end up like the DAL game. I don't care if they lose at this point, but it would be nice to have competitive games with at least a chance to win late. It would be really cool if F…

I am shocked the line is only GB -1.5. They must be assuming Fields will play. We don't even know if Rodgers or Love will start. It will be interesting to see the injury report for both teams on Wednesday. I assume Fields is going to be another game time decision, but GB may know more about Rodgers my mid-week. So for right now, if Fields starts, I am going Bears 23-20 and if Siemian starts, Packers 27-17.

We are now over halfway through the first Poles season. For the most part, this is what was expected, especially after the trading deadline changes (Quinn, Smith). I know he was always going to get a free pass for the first couple of years, but how many free agent hits and draft hits does he have today? How many of those players are starters next year? If you brought in a league average free agent at a position, which Poles acquisition is starting over them? Brisker is the only one I can think of at this point. The top offensive guys (Fields, Herbert, Mooney, and Kmet) are all Pace guys. On defense, of the only sure fire keepers (Brisker, Jackson, Johnson), on…

I know everyone has been hyped about Fields over the last few weeks, but Eddie Jackson needs some love. He leads the NFL in takeaways with 6 (4 INTs and 2 FFs), 3 players have 5, and 2 have 4. So outside of those 5 players, Jackson has double the amount of takeaways than every other player in the league this year. The most takeaways he had in one year was 8 (2018), INTs was 6 (2018), and FF was 3 (2020). So he has a great shot to break all his personal records with 8 games remaining.

A bunch of different threads mention our future going forward so I thought I was just going to put here . Trying to list (IMO) core players, 2023 starters, and who wont be back. I start with the D and change subject matter as we move forward. DBs: EJac, he will be 30 with a cap hit of 17 mil and a dead money hit of 9.5 if you move on from him. I think he stays one more yr. He has played well this yr, not sure he's worth 17 mil but they have a better dead money situation in 2024 (5.5 mil.) if they want to move on. Jaylon Johnson, our best corner costs 1.7 mil, and in 2024 , 2 mil, he wont be going anywhere but not sure he has prov…

I went into this game expecting a total Mel Tuckeresque coverage disaster. Instead they all seemed to know their job. We have to credit Houston-Carson and Jaylon Johnson for keeping the young guys lined up properly during the game. Plus the coaches deserve a ton of credit getting them ready. It's one game so I'm not trying to go overboard but it certainly feels like this rookie group of DBs is giving us a solid depth/foundation for the future. We already know what we have in Brisker and Gordon has been coming along well lately. Now today we see Jaylon Jones and Josh Blackwell play well along with Elijah Hicks at safety. Earlier in the season Jaylon J…

With Fields injury up in the air, the Bears may have to start Siemian against a top 5 defense in the Jets. The Jets could put a QB off the street and score 20 against the Bears. I doubt the Bears muster more than a FG if Siemian starts, and probably no more than 17 if Fields does. The line is -4.5 right now but that will shoot up if Fields doesn't play. A good bet for Jets + the under. I am saying 30-3 if Siemian starts, 27-17 if Fields starts.

So last night Hurts had 153 passing yards and 157 rushing yards, with 2 passing TDs, and the national media is now saying he is in the running with Mahomes for MVP. What is wild to me is using Fields last 6 games, Fields is averaging over 160 passing yards a game, 1.7 passing TDs, 107 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD. In Hurts last 6 games, he is averaging 200 passing yards and 55 rushing yards a game and 2.5 total TDs. So 255 total yards and 2.5 total TDs to Fields 267 total yards and 2.7 total TDs. So Fields is playing better than an MVP candidate over the last 6 weeks. Oh by the way, Philly has a top 5 Offensive Line and AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goe…

That was a satisfying Packers loss (now 4-7). At home, in Prime Time, Rodgers folds like a wet noodle in the 4th. He ended up with a 5.8 Y/A and most of his throws were quick throws behind the LOS. His QBR is 40.9, which is also laughable. Him and LaFleur sure don't look like juggernauts when they don't have HoF level receivers. The Packers are basically screwed due to Rodgers. His contract is reedonkulous. Dead cap for 2023? 99.7M! LMAO! In 2024? $68M. In 2025? Just 45.4M. So they are stuck with him for at least 2023 and maybe even 2024 (41 yrs old). To make matters worse, they only have $5.3M in cap space for 2023 with only 44 players signed. The have 14 pla…